TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a Best-of-3 Valorant match between Nightblood Gaming and Alliance Guardians in VCL North America Stage 2 Group Stage, scheduled for March 31, 2026. Markets span match winner, individual map winners, games total over/under 2.5, and map handicaps across Kalshi and Polymarket platforms.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's market resolves YES for ANY outcome (either team winning), making it logically incoherent and fundamentally unresolvable. Polymarket's six markets all resolve based on specific match outcomes (Map 1 winner, Map 2 winner, series winner, map handicaps, games total) with consistent logic tied to official vlr.gg results.Hero Tip:
Avoid the Kalshi market entirely—it contains a logical contradiction that makes it impossible to determine a NO resolution. All meaningful settlement logic resides in Polymarket's six markets, which are internally consistent and resolvable based on match results.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Outlier: This market resolves YES if Alliance Guardians wins OR if Nightblood Gaming wins, with no NO outcome defined. The resolution rule states 'If Alliance Guardians wins...then the market resolves to Yes' and 'If Nightblood Gaming wins...then the market resolves to Yes,' creating a logical impossibility where every possible match outcome triggers YES. This makes the market unresolvable.Polymarket:
Distinct stance: Provides six separate markets with mutually exclusive, well-defined outcomes: Map 1 Winner (Nightblood Gaming or Alliance Guardians), Map 2 Winner (Nightblood Gaming or Alliance Guardians), series winner (Nightblood Gaming or Alliance Guardians), NBG map handicap (-1.5), AG map handicap (-1.5), and Games Total O/U 2.5. Each market resolves based on official vlr.gg data with clear YES/NO or binary outcomes. All markets include consistent 50-50 fallback rules for cancellation, delay beyond 7 days, or incomplete play.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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