TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
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Misa Esports
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Limitless
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 29, 2026
Closed: Jun 29, 4:49 PM EST
Kalshi
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Misa Esports (-2.5) vs Team Liquid Academy (+2.5)
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Misa Esports (-2.5) vs Team Liquid Academy (+2.5)
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Misa Esports (-2.5) vs Team Liquid Academy (+2.5)
Map Handicap: MISA (-1.5) vs Team Liquid Academy (+1.5)
Description
This event group covers a best-of-three Valorant match between Misa Esports and Team Liquid Academy in VCL EMEA Stage 3 Group D, scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 1:30 PM ET. Markets span match winner, individual map winners, round totals, and handicap bets across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless platforms.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All three platforms apply identical core logic: official vlr.gg result, 50-50 on cancellation or 7-day no-play, consistent forfeit/walkover treatment, and map completion requirements for round-based markets.Primary resolution logic: vlr.gg official match results; credible reporting consensus (including video evidence) if vlr.gg does not publish within 2 hours of match conclusion.Core resolution logic:
- Match winner (Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless): resolves to the team declared winner by official result; if match begins and one team wins by opponent forfeit/disqualification/walkover, resolves to that winner; if match is canceled, not played, or delayed beyond 7 days without play, resolves 50-50.
- Map winner (Map 1, Map 2): resolves to the team that wins the map if completed; if map is not completed or decided by forfeit/disqualification/walkover, resolves 50-50; if match is canceled or delayed beyond 7 days without map completion, resolves 50-50.
- Map round totals (Over/Under 21.5 for Maps 1, 2, 3): resolves Over if combined rounds exceed 21.5, Under if less than 21.5, 50-50 if exactly 21.5 or map not completed by standard play; forfeit/disqualification/walkover on a map triggers 50-50 for that map's round market.
- Map handicap (Misa -2.5 vs TLA +2.5 for Maps 1, 2, 3): resolves to Misa if Misa wins by 3+ rounds, otherwise to TLA; requires map completion by actual rounds; forfeit/disqualification/walkover triggers 50-50.
- Match handicap (Misa -1.5 vs TLA +1.5): resolves to Misa if Misa wins 2+ more maps than TLA, otherwise to TLA; maps won by forfeit/disqualification/walkover count toward the total if match is completed; if match is canceled, ends in tie, or delayed beyond 7 days without winner, resolves 50-50.
- Games Total (Over/Under 2.5): resolves Over if 3+ maps are played, Under if fewer; maps won by forfeit/disqualification/walkover count if match is completed; if match is canceled, ends in tie, or delayed beyond 7 days without winner, resolves 50-50.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Match begins but incomplete with one team winning by forfeit/walkover: Match-level markets (winner, handicap, games total) resolve to the declared winner. Map-level markets (map winner, map rounds, map handicap) resolve 50-50 for any map not completed by standard play.
- Map completed but match later forfeited: Map-specific markets (map winner, map rounds, map handicap) resolve based on the completed map result regardless of later forfeit. Match-level markets resolve to the declared match winner.
- Exact round total of 21.5 on a map: Round total Over/Under markets resolve 50-50 if the combined round count is exactly 21.5.
- Match canceled or delayed beyond 7 days without play: All markets resolve 50-50.
- vlr.gg does not publish within 2 hours of match conclusion: Resolution uses credible reporting consensus, including video evidence, as fallback source.
Polymarket
This market refers to the Valorant Decider match between Misa Esports and Team Liquid Academy in the VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group D, initially scheduled for June 29 at 1:30PM ET. This market will resolve to "Misa Esports" if Misa Esports win the match against Team Liquid Academy. This market will resolve to "Team Liquid Academy" if Team Liquid Academy win the match against Misa Esports. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://vlr.gg. However, if https://vlr.gg has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Kalshi
If Team Liquid Academy wins the VCL EMEA: Stage 3 2026: Team Liquid Academy vs. Misa Esports Valorant match originally scheduled for Jun 29, 2026 at 1:30 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes. If Misa Esports wins the VCL EMEA: Stage 3 2026: Team Liquid Academy vs. Misa Esports Valorant match originally scheduled for Jun 29, 2026 at 1:30 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
Limitless
This market refers to the match between Misa Esports and Team Liquid Academy in the VCL EMEA: Stage 3 2026, scheduled for Jun 29, 2026. This market resolves to "YES" if the team named in the title wins in the specified match. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "NO." If either team loses by forfeit, disqualification, or walkover for any reason, this market will resolve to the team declared the winner, regardless of whether the match has started or when the decision is made. If the match is not completed with an official result by July 29, 2026, 23:59 UTC, the market will resolve to "Other."
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks price events differently. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their book and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets reflect crowdsourced trader belief—often more efficient at incorporating real-time information. On this market, prediction odds may diverge from sportsbook lines because traders update positions continuously without the friction of traditional betting limits. Prediction markets also attract sharp bettors seeking edge, which can push prices closer to true probability. Comparing both sources gives you a fuller picture of where informed opinion sits on the outcome.
Polymarket and Kalshi operate under different regulatory frameworks, user bases, and liquidity profiles, which can create temporary price gaps. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform's fee structure, order-book depth, and trader demographics influence how quickly prices adjust to news. On lower-volume events, one platform may see a large trade move the price before the other reacts. Arbitrage traders typically exploit these spreads, but brief windows of divergence persist due to withdrawal delays and platform-specific trading costs. Monitoring both venues helps you identify mispricing opportunities.
Key catalysts include roster changes, recent tournament results, and head-to-head performance trends between the two squads. Player injuries or stand-in announcements can shift odds sharply, as can patch updates affecting agent viability. Pre-match analysis from esports commentators and community predictions often trigger repricing. Live map bans and early series momentum—especially if one team takes a 2–0 lead—will drive late trading activity. Monitor team social media and VCL EMEA official updates for lineup confirmations and scheduling changes that could impact trader sentiment.
