TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 5, 10:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the Valorant Upper bracket semifinal 1 match between M80 and Nightblood Gaming in the VCL North America: Stage 3 Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 5 at 4:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "M80" if M80 win the match against Nightblood Gaming. This market will resolve to "Nightblood Gaming" if Nightblood Gaming win the match against M80. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://vlr.gg. However, if https://vlr.gg has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market refers to the Valorant Upper bracket semifinal 1 match between M80 and Nightblood Gaming in the VCL North America: Stage 3 Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 5 at 4:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "M80" if M80 win the match against Nightblood Gaming. This market will resolve to "Nightblood Gaming" if Nightblood Gaming win the match against M80. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://vlr.gg. However, if https://vlr.gg has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks price events differently. Sportsbooks set odds based on their risk models and profit margins, while prediction markets derive prices from real-time trader consensus. This market reflects what a distributed group of participants believes will happen, often incorporating specialized knowledge and live information. Comparing the two can reveal where public perception diverges from professional oddsmakers, though both aim to reflect true probabilities. Prediction market prices tend to adjust faster as new information emerges during the event window.
On Polymarket, traders set prices through an automated market maker mechanism, where buying and selling pressure directly moves the odds. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The top outcome currently reflects strong conviction around a specific scenario—such as M80 winning with a round handicap advantage. Prices update continuously as new trades execute, so the implied probability you see now may shift as match time approaches or if new information surfaces. Liquidity and trading volume influence how quickly prices respond to market sentiment.
This market resolves around Jul 6, 2026, once the match concludes and the result is verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome will be confirmed based on the actual performance in the competition—whether that involves round scores, map winners, or the overall match result, depending on the specific market variant. Resolution happens after the event is officially completed and reported by reliable esports coverage. Traders should monitor for any official announcements or delays that might affect the exact settlement timing.
Several factors could shift prices before resolution. Team roster changes, player substitutions, or injury announcements affecting either squad would likely trigger repricing. Pre-match analysis from esports analysts and community discussion can build or erode confidence in a particular outcome. Live performance during earlier rounds or map bans could reveal strategic advantages, causing traders to adjust their positions. Unexpected technical issues or match delays might also influence sentiment. Monitor team social media, official VCL announcements, and esports news outlets for developments that could impact expectations.