TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Valorant: LYON vs Contra (BO5) - VCL Latin America North Playoffs
Description
This market refers to the Valorant Grand final match between LYON and Contra in the VCL Latin America North Playoffs, initially scheduled for March 28 at 6:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "LYON" if LYON win the match against Contra. This market will resolve to "Contra" if Contra win the match against LYON. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://vlr.gg. However, if https://vlr.gg has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally different resolution scopes and logic. Kalshi resolves on whether either team wins the match (a tautology that always resolves YES), while Polymarket resolves on specific match outcomes, map winners, and series statistics with detailed edge-case handling. This creates a critical data integrity failure on Kalshi's side.Hero Tip:
Avoid betting on Kalshi's market—it is logically flawed and will always resolve YES regardless of outcome. All meaningful trading should occur on Polymarket, which provides 9 distinct markets with coherent resolution criteria tied to match results, individual map winners, series length, and map differential.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi's market states 'If LYON wins the match, then resolve YES' AND 'If Contra wins the match, then resolve YES'—a logical contradiction that guarantees YES resolution regardless of which team actually wins. This violates basic market design principles and makes the market unresolvable as a meaningful prediction instrument. No edge cases or source specification are provided.
- Polymarket: Aligned with itself (sole coherent platform): Polymarket provides 9 distinct markets, each with clear binary or categorical outcomes tied to verifiable match events: match winner (BO5), individual map winners (Maps 1–4), series length (O/U 3.5 and O/U 4.5 maps), and map differential handicaps (-1.5 and -2.5). All markets resolve based on official vlr.gg data within 2 hours of match conclusion, with 50-50 fallback for cancellations, delays beyond 7 days, incomplete maps, or forfeits. Completed maps count toward totals and handicaps even if won by forfeit, provided the match itself is completed.
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