TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
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Leviatán Esports
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Limitless
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 17, 2026
Closed: Jul 16, 7:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-3.5) vs FURIA Esports (+3.5)
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-3.5) vs FURIA Esports (+3.5)
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-2.5) vs FURIA Esports (+2.5)
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA Esports (-2.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+2.5)
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-4.5) vs FURIA Esports (+4.5)
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA Esports (-11.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+11.5)
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-2.5) vs FURIA Esports (+2.5)
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA Esports (-4.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+4.5)
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA Esports (-5.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+5.5)
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA Esports (-6.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+6.5)
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA Esports (-8.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+8.5)
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA Esports (-7.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+7.5)
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA Esports (-9.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+9.5)
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-4.5) vs FURIA Esports (+4.5)
Intro
This market tracks the outcome of a best-of-three Valorant match between Leviatán Esports and FURIA Esports in the VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Alpha, with a focus on the round handicap in Map 3. Across Polymarket, Limitless, and Kalshi, the consensus probability for Leviatán Esports to cover a -4.5 round handicap stands at 100.0%. Results will be determined by official vlr.gg reporting, with credible reporting consensus as fallback if final results are not published within 2 hours of match conclusion. Watch for the match scheduled for July 16, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET to see how the teams perform across all three maps.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All three platforms apply consistent resolution logic: official vlr.gg source, 2-hour fallback window for credible reporting, 7-day delay threshold, and 50-50 resolution for forfeits, disqualifications, walkovers, and incomplete maps. Kalshi and Limitless add a backstop resolution date (August 16, 2026 for Limitless; implicit for Kalshi), but this does not conflict with Polymarket's 7-day rule.Primary resolution logic: Official vlr.gg; credible reporting consensus (including video evidence) if vlr.gg has not published final results within 2 hours after event conclusionCore resolution logic:
- Match must be completed with a winner determined by rounds played to completion for binary outcome markets (Map 1 Winner, Map 2 Winner, Match Winner) to resolve to either team
- Map-specific round total and handicap markets require the respective map to be played to completion with final round scores determined by rounds actually played; incomplete maps or those decided by forfeit/disqualification/walkover resolve 50-50
- Match cancellation (not played at all), delay beyond 7 days from scheduled date without play beginning, or match ending in a tie resolves to 50-50 for binary outcome markets
- If match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to opponent forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, binary outcome markets resolve to the winning team; however, Games Total (O/U 2.5) and Map Handicap markets resolve 50-50 in this scenario
- If the clinching map is forfeited, the match counts as completed and resolves to the team declared winner
- Maps won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted toward Games Total and Map Handicap totals, provided the match is completed
- Exact threshold matches (e.g., exactly 19.5 rounds) resolve 50-50 for over/under markets
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Incomplete Map Resolution: If Map 1, 2, or 3 is not played to completion or is decided by forfeit/disqualification/walkover rather than rounds played, map-specific round total and handicap markets resolve 50-50. However, if the match is completed overall (e.g., one team wins 2-0 after a forfeit on Map 3), the Games Total market resolves based on maps actually played.
- Forfeited Clinching Map: If the clinching map (e.g., Map 3 in a 1-1 series) is forfeited, the match is considered completed and resolves to the team declared winner. Games Total and Map Handicap markets count the forfeited map toward their totals.
- 7-Day Delay Threshold: If the match is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date (July 16, 2026) without play beginning, binary outcome markets resolve 50-50. Map-specific markets also resolve 50-50 if the respective map is not completed by this threshold.
- Kalshi/Limitless Backstop Date: Limitless applies an August 16, 2026 23:59 UTC backstop; if no official result by then, it resolves to 'Other'. Kalshi and Polymarket do not explicitly state a backstop beyond the 7-day rule, but Kalshi's binary structure (Yes/No) and Limitless's 'Other' option provide implicit fallback mechanisms.
- Team Name Discrepancies: Minor spelling variations, sponsor tags, academy designations, or formatting differences in team names (e.g., 'Leviatán' vs 'Leviatan') resolve based on the underlying real-world team, provided the intended team can be unambiguously identified. If a listed name has no reasonable connection to any participating team or could refer to multiple teams, the market resolves 50-50.
Polymarket
This market refers to the Valorant match between Leviatán Esports and FURIA Esports in the VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Alpha, initially scheduled for July 16 at 5:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Leviatán Esports" if Leviatán Esports win the match against FURIA Esports. This market will resolve to "FURIA Esports" if FURIA Esports win the match against Leviatán Esports. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://vlr.gg. However, if https://vlr.gg has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Kalshi
Resolution is based on the official match result published by the tournament organizer for the scheduled July 16, 2026 contest. If the match is postponed and does not conclude within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time, or if it is cancelled before play begins, the market resolves to fair market price. If a forfeit occurs before any play begins, the market also resolves to fair market price. However, if the match begins and is subsequently forfeited by either team, resolution follows the official result as published by the governing body or tournament organizer.
Limitless
This market refers to the match between Leviatán Esports and FURIA Esports in the VCT Americas Stage 2 2026, scheduled for Jul 16, 2026. This market resolves to "YES" if the team named in the title wins in the specified match. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "NO." If either team loses by forfeit, disqualification, or walkover for any reason, this market will resolve to the team declared the winner, regardless of whether the match has started or when the decision is made. If the match is not completed with an official result by August 16, 2026, 23:59 UTC, the market will resolve to "Other."
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi derive odds from trader behavior rather than oddsmakers, often reflecting real-time sentiment and sharp money. Sportsbooks, by contrast, set fixed lines designed to balance action and lock in profit margins. Prediction markets can move faster in response to roster changes, scrim results, or injury news, while sportsbooks adjust more cautiously to manage liability. For esports events like this one, prediction markets sometimes offer better value on niche props that traditional books don't cover, though liquidity varies by outcome.
Key catalysts include roster announcements, player substitutions, recent scrim results, and team form heading into Stage 2. Injury reports or visa delays affecting either squad could shift odds significantly. Pre-match interviews and coach statements often reveal strategic adjustments that sharp traders price in quickly. Map pool updates and patch changes to Valorant itself can favor one team's playstyle over another. Monitor social media, team Discord leaks, and esports news outlets for breaking developments that might not immediately reflect in odds, creating trading opportunities before the broader market reprices.
