TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,590,312
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,439,516,703
404,175
Markets across
30,277
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,685
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
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LOUD
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Limitless
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 18, 2026
Closed: Jul 17, 10:29 PM EST
Kalshi
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: LOUD (-2.5) vs KRÜ Esports (+2.5)
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: KRÜ Esports (-3.5) vs LOUD (+3.5)
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: LOUD (-3.5) vs KRÜ Esports (+3.5)
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: LOUD (-4.5) vs KRÜ Esports (+4.5)
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: LOUD (-6.5) vs KRÜ Esports (+6.5)
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: LOUD (-9.5) vs KRÜ Esports (+9.5)
Intro
This market tracks the round differential in Map 3 of a best-of-three Valorant match between KRÜ Esports and LOUD during VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Omega. Across Limitless, Polymarket, and Kalshi, the consensus probability for LOUD winning Map 3 by more than 8.5 rounds stands at 100.0%. Resolution will be determined by vlr.gg based on the match scheduled for July 17, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET. Watch for the match kickoff on that date to see how the round differential unfolds in the decisive third map.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Scheduled date discrepancy (July 17 vs July 18, 2026), scope ambiguity on Kalshi (YES if either team wins), and divergent resolution frameworks (granular map/round vs binary YES/NO/Other). Hard deadline on Limitless (August 18) differs from Polymarket's 7-day delay rule.Hero tip: Verify the official match date with VCT before trading. Treat Polymarket as the authoritative source for map and round outcomes via vlr.gg. Clarify Kalshi's YES resolution condition with the platform—if both outcomes trigger YES, the market is effectively non-predictive. Monitor for schedule changes; Polymarket's 7-day rule and Limitless's August 18 deadline create different settlement windows.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Provides 15 distinct markets covering match winner, individual map winners (Maps 1–3), map count (O/U 2.5), map handicap (KRÜ -1.5), and round handicaps/totals for each map. Resolution tied to vlr.gg with 2-hour fallback to credible reporting. 7-day delay without play triggers 50-50. Incomplete maps resolve 50-50 unless one team forfeits/is disqualified (then resolves to winner). Key quote: 'If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50.'
- Kalshi: Single market with ambiguous scope: 'If LOUD wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If KRÜ Esports wins...then the market resolves to Yes.' No explicit NO outcome defined; no source specified; no delay threshold. Scheduled date listed as July 17, 2026 at 8:00 PM EDT. Key quote: 'If LOUD wins the VCT Americas Stage 2 2026...then the market resolves to Yes. If KRÜ Esports wins...then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Limitless: Two binary markets (KRÜ Esports YES/NO and LOUD YES/NO) with hard deadline of August 18, 2026 23:59 UTC. Scheduled date listed as July 18, 2026. Forfeit/disqualification resolves to declared winner. Unresolved by deadline resolves to Other. Key quote: 'If the match is not completed with an official result by August 18, 2026, 23:59 UTC, the market will resolve to Other.'
Polymarket
This market refers to the Valorant match between KRÜ Esports and LOUD in the VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Omega, initially scheduled for July 17 at 8:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "KRÜ Esports" if KRÜ Esports win the match against LOUD. This market will resolve to "LOUD" if LOUD win the match against KRÜ Esports. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://vlr.gg. However, if https://vlr.gg has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Kalshi
This event covers the VCT Americas Stage 2 2026 Valorant match between LOUD and KRÜ Esports scheduled for July 17, 2026 at 8:00 PM EDT. Each market resolves to Yes if the corresponding team wins the match. Resolution is based on the official result published by the governing body or tournament organizer. If the match is postponed and not completed within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time, the market resolves to the fair market price. If the match is cancelled before play begins, the market resolves to the fair market price. If the match is forfeited before any play occurs, the market resolves to the fair market price. If the match begins and is subsequently forfeited, the market resolves according to the official result published by the governing body or tournament organizer.
Limitless
This market refers to the match between KRÜ Esports and LOUD in the VCT Americas Stage 2 2026, scheduled for Jul 18, 2026. This market resolves to "YES" if the team named in the title wins in the specified match. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "NO." If either team loses by forfeit, disqualification, or walkover for any reason, this market will resolve to the team declared the winner, regardless of whether the match has started or when the decision is made. If the match is not completed with an official result by August 18, 2026, 23:59 UTC, the market will resolve to "Other."
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks price events through fundamentally different mechanisms. Sportsbooks set odds based on internal models and risk management, then adjust them to balance liability. Prediction markets, by contrast, derive prices from continuous trader participation and capital flows—essentially crowdsourced probability estimates. This market often reflects sharper, faster-moving consensus than traditional venues, particularly for niche esports matchups where sportsbook liquidity is thin. However, prediction market prices can spike on low volume or sentiment swings, so comparing both venues helps identify mispriced opportunities.
Key catalysts include roster changes, player injuries, or substitutions announced before the match. Recent tournament performance, head-to-head records, and map pool meta shifts can also shift trader sentiment significantly. Scrimmage results or practice footage leaks sometimes influence odds, as does broader VCT Americas standings pressure—teams fighting for playoffs positioning may play with different aggression levels. Pre-match interviews, coaching adjustments, or equipment issues reported in the 24 hours before the series can trigger sharp repricing. Monitor official VCT social channels and team announcements for any last-minute developments.
