TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

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$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Valorant: Gentle Mates vs NRG (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win Gentle Mates vs NRG?

Volume:
$1,331,747

NRG

 - Kalshi

NRG - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 9, 2026

Closed: Jul 9, 2:19 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

NRG

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$352,690
N/A
N/A
$211,079
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Map 1 Winner

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$111,764
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Map 3 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs Gentle Mates (+2.5)

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,314
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Games

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,037
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$335
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.9¢
N/A
$56
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Map 2 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs Gentle Mates (+2.5)

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Map 2 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-3.5) vs Gentle Mates (+3.5)

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
99¢
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Match Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$436,234
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Gentle Mates

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$273,325
N/A
N/A
$171,557
Settled
No
polymarket

Map 2 Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$149,367
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Map Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs Gentle Mates (+1.5)

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,126
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5)

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$170
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$65
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-4.5) vs Gentle Mates (+4.5)

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-2.5) vs NRG (+2.5)

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-3.5) vs NRG (+3.5)

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-4.5) vs NRG (+4.5)

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs Gentle Mates (+2.5)

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.9¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.9¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
19.9¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
19.9¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 51

Intro

This market tracks the total number of rounds played in Map 3 of the Valorant Best-of-3 quarterfinal between Gentle Mates and NRG at the Esports World Cup Playoffs. Across Polymarket and Kalshi, the consensus probability for Over/Under 21.5 rounds stands at 100.0%, aggregated from both platforms with resolution sourced from vlr.gg. Watch the match scheduled for July 9, 2026 at 9:45 AM EDT to see how the third map unfolds.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's market condition is logically incoherent: it resolves YES for both possible tournament outcomes (NRG wins EWC OR Gentle Mates wins EWC), rendering the market non-binary and unresolvable. Polymarket's match-specific resolution is logically sound and consistent across all derivative markets.Hero tip: Kalshi's match-level market is broken due to tournament-level resolution criteria that guarantee YES regardless of actual match outcome. Do not use Kalshi for settlement. All Polymarket markets (match winner, map winners, rounds, handicaps) share unified, coherent logic tied to actual match performance on vlr.gg. Use Polymarket as the authoritative settlement source.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves YES if NRG wins EWC 2026 OR if Gentle Mates wins EWC 2026. Both conditions trigger YES, creating a logical contradiction. The market cannot resolve to NO under any circumstance related to the actual match outcome.
  • Polymarket: Resolves to Gentle Mates if Gentle Mates win the match; resolves to NRG if NRG wins the match. Resolves 50-50 if match is canceled, not played, delayed 7+ days without play beginning, or ends in forfeit/disqualification/walkover. Resolution source: vlr.gg official results, or credible consensus if vlr.gg unavailable within 2 hours post-event.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market refers to the Valorant Quarterfinal 2 match between Gentle Mates and NRG in the Esports World Cup Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 9 at 9:45AM ET. This market will resolve to "Gentle Mates" if Gentle Mates win the match against NRG. This market will resolve to "NRG" if NRG win the match against Gentle Mates. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://vlr.gg. However, if https://vlr.gg has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Kalshi

The market resolves to Yes if either NRG or Gentle Mates wins their scheduled Valorant match at the Esports World Cup 2026 on July 9, 2026 at 9:45 AM EDT. Each team has a corresponding outcome; whichever team emerges victorious from this match will trigger a Yes resolution for their respective market outcome.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates prediction market pricing for the Gentle Mates vs NRG Esports World Cup match across Polymarket and Kalshi, letting you monitor real-time consensus on which team will prevail in their best-of-three playoff bout. Traders on both platforms continuously update odds based on team form, roster updates, and tournament momentum. By tracking prices across venues, you gain insight into how different market participants weigh the same matchup, revealing where conviction is strongest and where potential arbitrage opportunities may exist.

Prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks price events differently because they operate under distinct incentive structures. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their book and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets rely on trader consensus to discover prices. Prediction market participants often include specialists with deep esports knowledge, which can lead to sharper line-setting on niche matchups. However, sportsbooks may move faster on breaking news like player injuries or roster changes. Comparing both sources helps identify where public perception diverges from professional oddsmaking.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and regulatory frameworks that influence how prices form. Kalshi and Polymarket may see different volumes at different times, causing one venue to lead price discovery while the other lags. Platform-specific fees, settlement rules, and user interfaces also shape trading behavior. Temporary mispricings between venues create opportunities for alert traders, though arbitrage spreads typically narrow as sophisticated participants exploit gaps. Monitoring both platforms reveals which market is pricing this matchup more efficiently at any given moment.

Key catalysts include roster announcements or player substitutions, recent tournament performance by either squad, and head-to-head map pool matchups revealed closer to game day. Injury reports or visa complications affecting either team can trigger sharp repricing. Scrim results and community sentiment from esports analysts often influence trader positioning in the days before the match. Additionally, momentum from earlier Esports World Cup rounds may shift perception of each team's form. Monitor official team social media, esports news outlets, and tournament updates for signals that could reshape market odds before the series begins.