TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
This market refers to the Valorant match between Gentle Mates and Karmine Corp in the VCT EMEA Group Alpha, initially scheduled for April 10 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Gentle Mates" if Gentle Mates win the match against Karmine Corp. This market will resolve to "Karmine Corp" if Karmine Corp win the match against Gentle Mates. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://vlr.gg. However, if https://vlr.gg has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket diverge on the scope and settlement logic of their markets. Kalshi's market resolves YES if either team wins the match (binary outcome regardless of result), while Polymarket offers multiple distinct markets with different settlement criteria (match winner, map handicaps, map-specific winners, and total maps). Additionally, Polymarket includes a time-sensitive resolution rule (7-day delay triggers 50-50), whereas Kalshi does not explicitly address delays.Hero Tip:
If you trade on Kalshi, note that the market resolves YES for ANY match outcome (Gentle Mates win OR Karmine Corp win), making it a certainty bet conditional only on the match being played. On Polymarket, each market has distinct binary outcomes with different thresholds (e.g., map handicaps, map winners, total maps). Do not assume Kalshi and Polymarket outcomes will align—they measure different things. Watch for the 7-day delay rule on Polymarket; if the match is postponed beyond April 17 without a winner, Polymarket markets resolve 50-50, but Kalshi does not specify this condition.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Distinct stance: Kalshi offers a single binary market that resolves YES if either Karmine Corp wins OR Gentle Mates wins the match. This is a tautological market—it resolves YES for any non-canceled match outcome. The market does not distinguish between winners, map counts, or handicaps. No explicit delay or cancellation rules are provided beyond the implicit assumption that the match occurs.Polymarket:
Distinct stance: Polymarket offers four separate markets with different settlement criteria: (1) Match Winner (Gentle Mates vs Karmine Corp), (2) Map Handicap GM (-1.5) vs KC (+1.5), (3) Map 2 Winner, (4) Games Total O/U 2.5, and (5) Map 1 Winner, and (6) Map Handicap KC (-1.5) vs GM (+1.5). Each market has specific thresholds (e.g., 2+ map differential for handicaps, 3+ total maps for Over). All Polymarket markets include explicit 7-day delay rule: 'If the match is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.' Polymarket also specifies that forfeits/walkovers/disqualifications count toward map totals if the match is completed, but trigger 50-50 if the match is incomplete.
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