TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
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Nongshim RedForce
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Limitless
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 3, 2026
Closed: Jul 3, 1:19 PM EST
Kalshi
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-2.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+2.5)
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-3.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+3.5)
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-4.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+4.5)
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-2.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+2.5)
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-2.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+2.5)
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-2.5) vs G2 Esports (+2.5)
Intro
This market tracks the total number of rounds played in Map 3 of the G2 Esports versus Nongshim RedForce best-of-three match at the Esports World Cup Group C. Across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless, the consensus probability for Over 16.5 rounds stands at 100.0%. Resolution will be determined by official vlr.gg reporting, with credible reporting consensus including video evidence serving as fallback if vlr.gg does not publish within 2 hours of match conclusion. Watch the match scheduled for July 3, 2026 at 9:45 AM ET to see whether Map 3 extends beyond 16 rounds.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All three platforms (Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless) apply identical resolution logic: official vlr.gg data within 2 hours, credible reporting fallback, 7-day delay threshold, 50-50 for cancellations/ties/incomplete play, and forfeits during play count toward result.Primary resolution logic: Official vlr.gg reporting; credible reporting consensus (including video evidence) if vlr.gg does not publish within 2 hours of event conclusion.Core resolution logic:
- Match winner resolves to the team winning 2 or more maps in the best-of-three series.
- Map-specific winners (Map 1, Map 2, Map 3) resolve based on which team wins that individual map.
- Map round handicaps (e.g., G2 -2.5) resolve to G2 if they win the map by 3+ rounds; otherwise to Nongshim.
- Total rounds markets (Over/Under thresholds) resolve based on combined round count of both teams on that map, including overtime.
- Games Total (Over/Under 2.5) resolves Over if 3+ maps are played; Under if fewer than 3 maps are played.
- Maps won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default count toward the result if the match is completed.
- If a match begins but is not completed and one team wins by opponent forfeiture/disqualification/walkover during play, that team is declared the winner.
- If a match ends due to the clinching map being forfeited, this counts as a completed match.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Match Cancellation or No Play: If the match is canceled entirely (not played at all) or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without any play beginning, all markets resolve to 50-50 or Other (Limitless).
- Pre-Match Forfeit/Walkover: If a team forfeits, is disqualified, or walks away before the match starts, the match winner market resolves to 50-50; map-specific markets also resolve to 50-50.
- Incomplete Map: If any map is not played to completion or is decided by forfeit/disqualification/walkover rather than rounds played to conclusion, that map's markets (winner, round handicap, total rounds) resolve to 50-50.
- Incomplete Match with In-Play Forfeit: If the match begins but is not completed and one team wins due to opponent forfeiture/disqualification/walkover during play, the match winner resolves to the winning team; map-specific markets for completed maps resolve based on actual play.
- Exact Threshold (e.g., 21.5 rounds): If total rounds on a map equals exactly the threshold (e.g., 21.5), the market resolves to 50-50.
Polymarket
This market refers to the Valorant match between G2 Esports and Nongshim RedForce in the Esports World Cup Group C, initially scheduled for July 3 at 9:45AM ET. This market will resolve to "G2 Esports" if G2 Esports win the match against Nongshim RedForce. This market will resolve to "Nongshim RedForce" if Nongshim RedForce win the match against G2 Esports. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://vlr.gg. However, if https://vlr.gg has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by the outcome of the Nongshim RedForce vs. G2 Esports Valorant match at the Esports World Cup 2026, originally scheduled for July 3, 2026 at 9:45 AM EDT. The market resolves to Yes if either team wins the match.
Limitless
This market refers to the match between G2 Esports and Nongshim RedForce in the Esports World Cup 2026, scheduled for Jul 3, 2026. This market resolves to "YES" if the team named in the title wins in the specified match. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "NO." If either team loses by forfeit, disqualification, or walkover for any reason, this market will resolve to the team declared the winner, regardless of whether the match has started or when the decision is made. If the match is not completed with an official result by August 3, 2026, 23:59 UTC, the market will resolve to "Other."
Frequently asked questions
Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, which naturally creates price variance. Polymarket and Kalshi may also have slightly different market mechanics—such as order-book depth, minimum trade sizes, or user interface friction—that influence how quickly prices converge. Additionally, traders on one platform may react faster to breaking news or roster changes, causing temporary spreads. These gaps typically narrow as the match date approaches and arbitrage traders exploit the difference.
Key catalysts include roster changes or player substitutions, patch updates affecting agent viability, recent tournament results and form trends, and any official statements from G2 or Nongshim about preparation or injuries. Scrim leaks or community analysis of team playstyle can also shift trader conviction. Media coverage, betting syndicates entering the market, and movement on competing platforms may trigger rapid repricing. Watch for last-minute lineup confirmations and any tournament-related delays that could affect scheduling or competitive conditions.
