TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$198,896,558
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,591,877
500,572
Markets across
13,691
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,797
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs MIBR (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha
Description
This market refers to the Valorant match between G2 Esports and MIBR in the VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha, initially scheduled for April 10 at 8:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "G2 Esports" if G2 Esports win the match against MIBR. This market will resolve to "MIBR" if MIBR win the match against G2 Esports. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://vlr.gg. However, if https://vlr.gg has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi diverge on scope: Polymarket offers granular individual map markets (Map 1, Map 2, series handicaps, and overall match winner), while Kalshi provides only a single binary market on Map 2 outcome without distinction of winner.Hero Tip:
If you trade on Polymarket, you can hedge or express views on individual map outcomes and series handicaps. On Kalshi, you can only bet whether Map 2 is played at all (Yes if either team wins it, which is almost certain if the match reaches Map 2). Polymarket offers far more granular settlement points; Kalshi's market is effectively a proxy for 'Does the match reach at least 2 maps?'Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket offers six separate markets covering Map 1 winner, Map 2 winner, Games Total O/U 2.5, two map handicap variants, and the overall match winner. Each resolves independently based on official vlr.gg data or credible consensus within 2 hours of conclusion. All markets treat forfeits, disqualifications, and walkovers as completed maps (except for overall match winner, which resolves 50-50 if the match ends via forfeit before play begins). Key quote: 'Maps won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the total, provided that the match is completed.'
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi provides a single binary market: 'If MIBR wins map 2 in the VCT Americas Stage 1 2026: MIBR vs. G2 Esports Valorant match originally scheduled for Apr 10, 2026 at 8:00 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes. If G2 Esports wins map 2 in the VCT Americas Stage 1 2026: MIBR vs. G2 Esports Valorant match originally scheduled for Apr 10, 2026 at 8:00 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.' This market resolves Yes if either team wins Map 2, and implicitly No only if Map 2 is not played. No resolution source, timing, or edge-case guidance is provided.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.