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Closed: Sep 26, 7:22 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on determining which team will have the upper hand in the final quarter of an upcoming college football game between Utah and Iowa State. It tracks the scoring dynamics specifically in the last quarter, excluding any overtime periods, to identify the team that finishes strongest.
The market resolves based on which team wins the fourth quarter of the Utah vs Iowa State college football game scheduled for September 26, 2026, excluding any overtime periods. If Iowa State scores more points in the fourth quarter than Utah, the 'Iowa St. wins 4th Quarter' market will resolve to Yes. Conversely, if Utah outscores Iowa State in that same quarter, the 'Utah wins 4th Quarter' market will resolve to Yes. Should both teams finish the fourth quarter with equal scores, the 'Tie 4th Quarter' market will resolve to Yes. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, all markets remain active and resolve according to the official fourth-quarter result. If the game fails to start within the 48-hour window, all markets will resolve to a fair price. Only points scored during the regulation fourth quarter count toward resolution, with overtime scores excluded.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which can be influenced by factors like house bias or initial public perception. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individuals. If a significant discrepancy exists, arbitrage opportunities may arise, where traders can profit by simultaneously buying and selling contracts in both venues. However, it’s important to remember that both types of odds represent probabilities, and neither is guaranteed to be perfectly accurate.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning buyers and sellers submit bids and asks, and contracts trade whenever there’s a matching price. The price of a contract represents the probability of that outcome occurring, scaled to a value between 0 and 100. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts to reflect the collective assessment of the outcome. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market remains responsive to changing conditions and reflects the latest insights.
This market resolves around Sep 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the 4th quarter winner of the Utah vs Iowa State game will determine the result. The platform will utilize publicly available game results to verify the winner and settle the market accordingly. Traders should ensure they understand the resolution timeline and have sufficient time to adjust their positions before the event concludes. The final result will be based on official game data.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in coaching strategies, or unexpected weather conditions could significantly shift the perceived probabilities. Game-day performance in the first three quarters will also be a major driver, as it provides insights into team momentum and potential outcomes. Public sentiment, as reflected in social media and sports news, can also play a role, though to a lesser extent. Unexpected events during the 4th quarter itself, such as key turnovers or scoring drives, will have the most immediate impact.