TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$218,201,443
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,797,601
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,873,651
500,842
Markets across
13,663
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,809
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Utah vs. Golden Knights
Description
In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for April 29 at 10:00PM ET: If the Utah win, the market will resolve to "Utah". If the Golden Knights win, the market will resolve to "Golden Knights". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi measure different events: Polymarket resolves on game outcome and combined scoring; Kalshi resolves on overtime occurrence. These are orthogonal markets, not competing resolutions of the same underlying event.Hero Tip:
Treat these as independent markets. Polymarket outcomes (Utah win, Golden Knights win, total goals) do not directly determine Kalshi outcome (overtime yes/no). A Utah win in regulation resolves Polymarket moneyline but does not trigger Kalshi. Conversely, overtime occurrence does not determine Polymarket moneyline. Clarify Kalshi's definition of overtime: does it include shootout, or only regulation+OT play?Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Six markets covering moneyline (Utah vs. Golden Knights), spread (Golden Knights -1.5), and four over/under totals (4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5 combined goals). All resolve on final score including overtime and shootouts; shootout adds one goal to winner. Cancellation without makeup = 50-50 split. Postponement keeps market open until completion.
- Kalshi: Single binary market: resolves Yes if Utah and Vegas go to overtime; No otherwise. No explicit treatment of shootout, cancellation, or postponement. Definition of overtime (regulation+OT only vs. including shootout) is ambiguous.
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