TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$87,176,691
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,391,958,194
394,660
Markets across
30,119
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,626
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 12, 5:58 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track how decisively one team outperforms the other specifically in the third quarter of an upcoming college football game. The outcomes depend entirely on the point differential between the two teams during that single quarter, ignoring the rest of the game's events.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the third quarter of the Utah St. versus Washington college football game scheduled for September 12, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific point differential threshold, with 'Yes' resolving if the winning team exceeds that margin in the third quarter. If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, markets remain open and resolve based on the final result. If the game does not start within 48 hours of its scheduled time, all markets resolve to a fair price. No affiliation with the NCAA is claimed, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often converging towards what many consider the 'true' probability of an event. This can sometimes differ from sportsbook odds, which may be influenced by factors like house bias or promotional offers. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance betting action, while this market allows traders to directly express their beliefs about the likely outcome. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially early in the market, as prediction markets can incorporate information more quickly and efficiently than traditional sportsbooks.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the third quarter. The price of each contract reflects the market's assessment of the probability of that spread occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective expectation. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current top market on Kalshi is for Washington wins 3Q by over 23.5 points, though probabilities are dynamic and change with trading activity.
This market resolves around Sep 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread of the third quarter between Utah State and Washington will be used to determine which contracts payout. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics, ensuring an objective and verifiable result. Traders holding contracts on the correct spread will receive a payout, while those on incorrect spreads will not.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either Utah State or Washington would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they favor one team's playing style, could also impact the market. Additionally, any significant shifts in public perception or expert analysis regarding the teams' strengths and weaknesses could drive trading activity and alter the spread. Unexpected lineup changes or in-game performance during earlier quarters could also contribute to price fluctuations.