TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 19, 5:29 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the point differential between USC and Rutgers specifically during the second quarter of their college football game. Each market corresponds to a different threshold of points by which either team must lead at the end of the second quarter for the market to settle positively.
The markets resolve based on the point difference between USC and Rutgers exclusively in the second quarter of the game scheduled for September 19, 2026. Each market has a specific threshold that determines a 'Yes' outcome, depending on whether USC or Rutgers wins the quarter by more than the stated margin. All markets consider only points scored during the second quarter. If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, the markets remain open and resolve based on the official result. If the game does not start within 48 hours, all markets resolve to a fair price. Kalshi is not affiliated with the NCAA, and all trademarks belong to their respective owners.
Generally, prediction markets and sportsbooks often arrive at similar probabilities, but they do so through different mechanisms. Sportsbooks set odds based on their own analysis and to balance their risk, while this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately forecast the outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply the dynamics of supply and demand within the prediction market. It’s common to see prediction markets move faster than sportsbook odds in response to new information, as traders can react more quickly than bookmakers adjusting lines.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the second quarter of the USC vs Rutgers game. The price of each contract reflects the market’s probability assessment of that spread occurring. As more traders buy contracts for a particular spread, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and volume provide insights into how strongly traders feel about different potential outcomes. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to efficiently aggregate information and generate a forecast.
This market resolves around Sep 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread achieved in the second quarter of the USC vs Rutgers game will determine the winning contracts. The official result, as reported by a trusted sports data source, will be used to settle the market. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct spread will receive a payout, while those holding losing contracts will forfeit their investment. The market’s resolution is based on the actual game results.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the game concludes. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the USC or Rutgers teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favoring one team’s playing style, could also shift the market. Additionally, any late-breaking news about team strategies or internal issues could affect trader sentiment. Even significant betting activity in sportsbooks could indirectly influence this market as traders react to perceived imbalances.