TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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USA vs. China
polymarket
kalshi

What is the result of USA vs China?

Volume:
$443,486

USA

 - Kalshi

USA - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 4, 2026

Closed: Sep 4, 10:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

USA

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$54,618
N/A
N/A
$53,594
Settled
Yes
polymarket

USA vs. China

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$23,458
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

China

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$365,411
N/A
N/A
$324,721
Settled
No
Total markets: 3

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of the USA versus China women’s professional FIBA World Cup basketball game, scheduled for September 4, 2026. Currently, the consensus probability of USA winning is 98.4%, aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi. The resolution source for this market is whether the USA wins the game as originally scheduled for September 4, 2026 at 8:15 AM EDT. Traders should watch the game itself on September 4, 2026, to see which team secures the victory and determine the market’s resolution.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Fundamental mismatch in settlement values: Kalshi uses a binary Yes/No format while Polymarket uses specific team outcomesHero tip: Traders should be cautious due to fundamentally different resolution mechanics between platforms. Consider hedging positions across both markets to manage risk

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Market resolves to Yes if either USA or China wins the game - Key Quote: "If USA wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If China wins... then the market resolves to Yes"
  • Polymarket: Market resolves to specific team name or 50-50 split - Key Quote: "If the USA win, the market will resolve to "USA". If the China win, the market will resolve to "China". If the game is canceled entirely... this market will resolve 50-50"
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming FIBA Women's World Cup game, scheduled for September 4 at 8:15AM ET: If the USA win, the market will resolve to "USA". If the China win, the market will resolve to "China". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the winner of the China vs USA women's professional FIBA World Cup basketball game scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:15 AM EDT. If the USA wins, the USA market resolves to Yes; if China wins, the China market resolves to Yes. If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of the originally scheduled start time, the market will remain open and resolve based on the official final result. If the game is cancelled or not started within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start, all markets will resolve to a fair price. Kalshi is not affiliated with the Governing League, and all trademarks belong to their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the USA vs. China rivalry market aggregates real-time data from multiple venues, showing how traders price the chances of different outcomes. It displays current probabilities, volume of $443,486 and 24-hour volume of $296,256, plus a consensus view across platforms. This centralized view helps users monitor sentiment shifts and compare how Polymarket and Kalshi users evaluate the USA vs. China rivalry market.

On Polymarket and Kalshi, prices can vary due to differences in user bases, liquidity, and trading activity. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For instance, one platform might attract more retail traders while the other sees institutional participation, skewing probabilities. Additionally, each venue has its own fee structure and market design, which can affect how traders place bets and thus influence the displayed odds.