TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 1, 10:10 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether the USA will defeat Bosnia and Herzegovina by more than 1.5 goals during regulation time of their FIFA World Cup match. On Kalshi, the leading outcome—USA wins by more than 2.5 goals—stands at 25.0%, while the secondary outcome of USA winning by more than 1.5 goals is at 3.0%. Resolution is determined by the official final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. Watch for the match kickoff on July 1, 2026, which will determine the final goal differential and settle this market.
Resolution is determined by the final goal differential during regulation time (90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties) of the USA vs Bosnia and Herzegovina FIFA World Cup match originally scheduled for July 1, 2026. Outcomes resolve to Yes if USA wins by more than 2.5 or 1.5 goals, or if Bosnia and Herzegovina wins by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals, depending on the specific market. The margin is calculated as the absolute difference between final scores, with only goals scored during standard regulation time counting toward resolution.
Prediction market odds and traditional sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant pools and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and manage risk; prediction markets aggregate beliefs from traders with real money at stake. This market may show tighter or wider spreads than major sportsbooks, depending on liquidity and the collective conviction of traders. Comparing the two can reveal where consensus differs and highlight potential value opportunities.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing outcomes at prices between 0 and 100 cents. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The spread between bid and ask reflects the current uncertainty around the final margin; tighter spreads indicate higher confidence, while wider spreads suggest disagreement. As new information emerges, traders adjust positions, moving the price to reflect updated expectations about the game's outcome.
This market resolves around Jul 2, 2026, once the USA vs Bosnia football match concludes and the final regulation-time score is verified. The outcome is determined by the point differential at the end of regular play, confirmed against credible public sports reporting and official match records. No overtime or penalty shootout results factor into the settlement; only the score at the end of 90 minutes of regulation time counts.
Key catalysts include team roster announcements, injury reports, and recent form leading up to kickoff. Pre-match media coverage, betting-line movements from major sportsbooks, and historical head-to-head records can all influence trader positioning. Weather forecasts and venue conditions may also shift expectations around scoring pace. As the match date approaches, any official lineup confirmations or tactical surprises tend to trigger sharp repricing in this market.