TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 6, 8:55 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether the combined first-half goal total in the USA vs Belgium FIFA World Cup match will exceed 0.5 goals. On Kalshi, the probability of over 0.5 first-half goals stands at 63.0%, while over 1.5 first-half goals is at 27.0%. Resolution is determined by the official goal count during the first half of the match scheduled for July 6, 2026. Watch for team lineups and tactical formations announced in the days leading up to kickoff, as these will signal offensive intent and defensive setup that typically drive early-match scoring patterns.
Resolution is based on the total goals scored by both teams during the first half of the USA vs Belgium FIFA World Cup match originally scheduled for July 6, 2026. Each market outcome corresponds to a specific goal threshold (0.5, 1.5, 2.5, or 3.5 goals), and resolves affirmatively if the combined first-half goal total exceeds that threshold. Only goals scored during the first half count toward resolution. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled more than two weeks away, the market resolves to a fair price in accordance with the rules.
Prediction market odds and sportsbook odds often diverge because they serve different purposes and audiences. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets like this one aggregate trader beliefs through continuous price discovery. Traders here are incentivized to identify mispricings relative to sportsbook lines, meaning this market can sometimes offer sharper odds or faster reaction to new information. However, sportsbooks may occasionally move faster on breaking news, so comparing both sources helps traders spot value and understand where consensus lies on first-half scoring.
This market resolves around Jul 7, 2026, once the first half of the USA vs Belgium match concludes and the goal total is verified. The outcome is confirmed against credible public sources, including official match records and major sports reporting outlets. Traders holding shares in the correct outcome receive their payout once the result is finalized and the market settles. The resolution hinges solely on the number of goals scored during the first 45 minutes of play, with no adjustments for red cards, injuries, or other match circumstances.
Several catalysts can shift odds before kickoff and during the first half. Team news—such as injury announcements, lineup changes, or tactical adjustments—often triggers sharp repricing as traders reassess scoring likelihood. Weather conditions, referee assignments, and recent form updates can also influence trader conviction. Once the match begins, early goals, missed chances, and in-game momentum swings will drive real-time price movement. Additionally, any breaking news about player availability or unexpected substitutions may prompt sudden order flow, so traders should monitor official team announcements and live match commentary closely.