TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.8b
24H VOL:
$244,265,276
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,349,697,137
578,254
Markets across
14,382
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,099
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a Serie A match between US Sassuolo Calcio and Bologna FC 1909 scheduled for March 15, 2026. Markets span total goals (over/unders at 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, and 4.5 thresholds), spread betting (goal-margin outcomes), and both-teams-to-score outcomes across Kalshi and Polymarket platforms.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Over/Under threshold logic differs between platforms. Kalshi uses strict greater-than (>) while Polymarket uses greater-than-or-equal (>=), creating one-goal resolution gaps at boundary scores.Hero Tip:
At exact boundary scores (2, 3, 4, 5 combined goals), Kalshi and Polymarket will resolve oppositely. Example: if final score is 2-0 (2 total goals), Kalshi Over 1.5 resolves No, but Polymarket Over 1.5 resolves Over. Cross-platform positions at these thresholds carry arbitrage or hedge risk.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Total goals markets resolve Yes only if combined goals strictly exceed threshold. Over 1.5 requires 2+ goals, Over 2.5 requires 3+ goals, Over 3.5 requires 4+ goals, Over 4.5 requires 5+ goals. Quote: 'more than 1.5 total goals.'Polymarket:
Total goals markets resolve Over if combined goals meet or exceed threshold. Over 1.5 requires 2+ goals, Over 2.5 requires 3+ goals, Over 3.5 requires 4+ goals, Over 4.5 requires 5+ goals. Quote: 'combine to score 2 or more goals.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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