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OPEN INTEREST:
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406,422
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MATCHED EVENTS:
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PLATFORM COVERAGE:
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Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 7, 5:52 PM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether Naomi Osaka will advance against Elena Rybakina in their US Open WTA match, originally scheduled for September 7, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. Currently, Polymarket gives a 100.0% probability to “US Open WTA: Completed Match: Naomi Osaka vs Elena Rybakina”. The resolution source for this market is the official WTA Tennis scores page at https://www.wtatennis.com/scores. Keep an eye on the match outcome itself, as this market will resolve based on the result of the match scheduled for September 7, 2026.
This market refers to the tennis match between Naomi Osaka and Elena Rybakina in the US Open WTA, originally scheduled for September 7, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Naomi Osaka' if Naomi Osaka advances against Elena Rybakina. This market will resolve to 'Elena Rybakina' if Elena Rybakina advances against Naomi Osaka. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of bettors, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on their own modeling and risk assessment, while this market is driven by individuals trading based on their own research and insights. It's common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or when new information emerges. Comparing the two can be a valuable exercise for informed decision-making, though it's important to remember they represent different types of forecasting.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the outcome of the Osaka vs Rybakina match. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of each outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts, providing a dynamic assessment of the event's potential results. The current price indicates what traders, as a group, believe is the likelihood of a particular player winning.
This market resolves around Sep 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Osaka vs Rybakina match as reported by recognized tennis authorities. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine the winning outcome and distribute payouts accordingly. Traders should monitor official sources for updates as the match progresses, as this will ultimately determine the settlement of this market.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or even pre-match interviews revealing strategic approaches could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected results in other matches leading up to the Osaka vs Rybakina match could also influence perceptions of player form and confidence. Furthermore, major upsets in the tournament overall might cause traders to reassess their probabilities, leading to fluctuations in the market price. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding potential movements in this market.