TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 19, 9:10 PM EST
Kalshi
This market on Kalshi tracks whether Aaron Rai will finish in the top 10 positions after the first two rounds of the 2026 U.S. Open golf tournament. The leading outcome currently stands at 80.0% probability on Kalshi, with resolution determined by official U.S. Open scoring records. Rai's performance through 36 holes will be the decisive factor, as the market resolves based on whether he places within the top 10 finishers including any ties after Round 2 concludes on June 19, 2026.
This event comprises 150 separate markets, each tracking whether a specific professional golfer finishes in the top 10 (including ties) after the first two rounds of the 2026 U.S. Open. Each market resolves Yes if that golfer achieves a top-10 finish after two rounds. If a golfer forfeits, withdraws, or does not participate prior to teeing off, their market resolves to Fair Market Price. If a golfer forfeits, withdraws, or does not participate after teeing off, their market resolves to No. Multiple markets may resolve Yes if multiple golfers finish in the top 10. The event is not affiliated with or endorsed by the PGA.
Prediction market odds on Kalshi often differ from traditional sportsbook odds because they reflect real-time trader consensus rather than bookmaker pricing models. Sportsbooks adjust lines to balance liability and profit margin, while prediction markets aggregate decentralized participant beliefs. For the U.S. Open Round 2 top 10 finishers, Kalshi odds may move faster in response to player performance, injury reports, or course conditions. Comparing Kalshi implied probabilities to major sportsbook lines can reveal where the crowd disagrees with professional oddsmakers, though both sources aim to price the same underlying outcome.
The U.S. Open: Round 2 Top 10 Finishers market resolves on Jun 19, 2026, after Round 2 concludes and official results are confirmed. The outcome for each golfer contract is determined by whether that player finishes in the top 10 of the Round 2 leaderboard. Contracts for players who achieve a top 10 finish resolve to 100 cents, while those who miss the cut or finish outside the top 10 resolve to 0 cents. Resolution occurs once the tournament administrator publishes final standings and Kalshi confirms the data against official sources.
Several catalysts can shift odds for U.S. Open Round 2 top 10 finishers before market resolution. Round 1 performance is the primary driver: strong opening rounds increase a player's top 10 probability, while missed cuts or poor scores reduce it. Course conditions, weather changes, and pin placements during Round 2 itself will influence real-time trading. Injury announcements or withdrawal news can eliminate or boost specific players instantly. Betting action from sharp traders responding to leaderboard updates will create price momentum. Media coverage highlighting contenders or dark horses may also sway retail trader participation and shift implied probabilities throughout the event window.