TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,436,095,462

405,232

Markets across

30,526

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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US Open, Qualification ATP: Seong-Chan Hong vs Nikoloz Basilashvili
polymarket
kalshi

US Open, Qualification ATP: Seong-Chan Hong vs Nikoloz Basilashvili

Volume:
$206,652

US Open, Qualification ATP: Seong-Chan Hong vs Nikoloz Basilashvili

 - Polymarket

US Open, Qualification ATP: Seong-Chan Hong vs Nikoloz Basilashvili - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 26, 2026

Closed: Aug 25, 9:23 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

US Open, Qualification ATP: Seong-Chan Hong vs Nikoloz Basilashvili

View
100%
68%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$124,543
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

US Open, Qualification ATP: Seong-Chan Hong vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Set 1 Winner

View
100%
60%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$3,343
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

US Open, Qualification ATP: Seong-Chan Hong vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Match O/U 21.5

View
100%
42%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$508
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

US Open, Qualification ATP: Seong-Chan Hong vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Set Handicap +/-1.5

View
100%
83%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$6
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Jannik Sinner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$77,084
N/A
N/A
$62,972
18h 16m
No
polymarket

US Open, Qualification ATP: Seong-Chan Hong vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Set Handicap +/-1.5

View
0%
42%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$817
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

US Open, Qualification ATP: Seong-Chan Hong vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Match O/U 22.5

View
0%
49%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$337
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

US Open, Qualification ATP: Seong-Chan Hong vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Match O/U 23.5

View
0%
44%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Completed Match

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

US Open, Qualification ATP: Seong-Chan Hong vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Set 2 O/U 8.5

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

US Open, Qualification ATP: Seong-Chan Hong vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Total Sets: O/U 2.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

US Open, Qualification ATP: Seong-Chan Hong vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Set 2 Winner

View
100%
39%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

US Open, Qualification ATP: Seong-Chan Hong vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Set 1 O/U 8.5

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

US Open, Qualification ATP: Seong-Chan Hong vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Set 2 O/U 9.5

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

US Open, Qualification ATP: Seong-Chan Hong vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Set 1 O/U 9.5

View
0%
98%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

US Open, Qualification ATP: Seong-Chan Hong vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Set 2 O/U 10.5

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

US Open, Qualification ATP: Seong-Chan Hong vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Set 1 O/U 10.5

View
0%
98%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

US Open, Qualification ATP: Seong-Chan Hong vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Game Spread +/-2.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 18

Intro

This market tracks whether tennis player Jannik Sinner will compete in the 2026 US Open men's singles tournament. The aggregated consensus probability across Polymarket and Kalshi shows a leading outcome probability of 100.0%. Resolution will be determined by official ATP Tour statistics and event organizers. The key catalyst to watch will be the official player entry list published before the tournament's start on September 30, 2026, which will confirm whether Sinner is participating in the main draw.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both markets use ATP Tour as the primary source and share consistent rules for match completion and outcome determination, with clear edge case handling for retirements, walkovers, and cancellationsPrimary resolution logic: Official ATP Tour statistics and event organizers

Core resolution logic:

  • Match outcome resolves to the player who advances, including via opponent retirement, default, or disqualification
  • Unplayed matches, ties, or unresolved results by deadline resolve as 50-50 for outcome market
  • Completion market resolves Yes only if all games/sets are played through normal play
  • Any forfeit, retirement, walkover, or cancellation resolves completion market as No

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Retirement During Match: Resolves to the player who advances; completion market resolves No
  • Walkover: Resolves as 50-50 for outcome market; completion market resolves No
  • Match Not Played At All: Resolves as 50-50 for outcome market; completion market resolves No
Timing: Resolution occurs by September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or when official ATP statistics are publishedOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market refers to the tennis match between Seong-Chan Hong and Nikoloz Basilashvili in the US Open, Qualification ATP, originally scheduled for August 25, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Seong-Chan Hong' if Seong-Chan Hong advances against Nikoloz Basilashvili. This market will resolve to 'Nikoloz Basilashvili' if Nikoloz Basilashvili advances against Seong-Chan Hong. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

If Jannik Sinner competes in the 2026 US Open men's singles tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, pricing differences arise from varying user bases, liquidity conditions, and market design features. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For example, one platform might attract more tennis specialists, skewing its odds, while the other could reflect broader retail interest. These factors combine to create distinct probability assessments even for the same underlying event.