TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,590,312
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,439,516,703
404,175
Markets across
30,277
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,685
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 3, 7:45 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Zachary Svajda and Arthur Gea in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 3, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Zachary Svajda' if Zachary Svajda advances against Arthur Gea. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Gea' if Arthur Gea advances against Zachary Svajda. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Zachary Svajda and Arthur Gea in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 3, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Zachary Svajda' if Zachary Svajda advances against Arthur Gea. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Gea' if Arthur Gea advances against Zachary Svajda. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, incorporating a profit margin. This market, however, is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs, potentially leading to more accurate probabilities, particularly as the event approaches. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information access, biases, or simply the dynamics of how each venue operates. It’s common to see prediction markets converge towards the true outcome as more information emerges.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome of the Svajda vs Gea match, and the price of these shares reflects the market’s collective probability assessment. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price fluctuates based on supply and demand; if more people believe a particular outcome is likely, the price of shares representing that outcome will increase. Conversely, if sentiment shifts, the price will decrease. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the most up-to-date information and opinions of traders.
This market resolves around Sep 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Svajda vs Gea match as reported by the official tournament organizers. The market will determine which player wins the match, and the outcome will be based on the official score. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final result. It’s important to monitor official sources for the definitive outcome of this contest.
Several factors could influence this market between now and resolution. Any news regarding player form, injuries, or changes in playing conditions could significantly shift the odds. Unexpected upsets in earlier rounds of the tournament, or even weather forecasts impacting the match schedule, could also move the market. Public sentiment and expert analysis, while not directly reflected in the market, can indirectly influence trader behavior. A strong performance by either player in a preceding match, or even a compelling narrative emerging around one of the competitors, could also lead to shifts in trading volume and price.