TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 4, 5:13 PM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether over or under 10.5 games will be played in the fourth set of the Yibing Wu versus Carlos Alcaraz match at the US Open ATP tournament. Currently, Polymarket gives a 100.0% probability to “Wu vs. Alcaraz: Set 4 Games O/U 10.5”. Resolution will be based on the official score reported at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Keep a close watch on the match itself, originally scheduled for September 4, 2026 at 11:00AM ET, as the outcome will depend on the actual number of games played in the fourth set.
This market refers to the tennis match between Yibing Wu and Carlos Alcaraz in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 4, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Yibing Wu' if Yibing Wu advances against Carlos Alcaraz. This market will resolve to 'Carlos Alcaraz' if Carlos Alcaraz advances against Yibing Wu. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to be more accurate than traditional sportsbook odds, as they reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders. However, sportsbook odds can sometimes offer value, especially if they diverge significantly from the prediction market price. It’s important to compare both to identify potential arbitrage opportunities. This market, like others, can show differences due to varying levels of information and analysis incorporated into each pricing mechanism. Examining these differences can be a useful strategy for informed decision-making.
This market resolves around Sep 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Alcaraz vs Wu match as declared by the official tournament organizers. The platform will verify the result against widely available and trusted sources to ensure accuracy. Traders holding shares in the winning outcome will be paid out according to the final share price at the time of resolution, while those holding shares in the losing outcome will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could influence the price of shares in this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or updated match analysis from tennis experts could shift market sentiment. Unexpected results in other matches leading up to the Alcaraz vs Wu match could also have an impact. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed traders could signal a change in expectations. Monitoring these signals and events will be crucial for understanding potential price movements in this market before Sep 11, 2026.