TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 4, 9:40 PM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether more or fewer than 8.5 games will be played in the fourth set of the Valentin Vacherot versus Frances Tiafoe match at the US Open ATP tournament. Currently, Polymarket gives a 100.0% probability to the outcome of “Vacherot vs. Tiafoe: Set 4 Games O/U 8.5”. Resolution will be based on the official score reported at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Keep an eye on the match itself, originally scheduled for September 4, 2026 at 11:00AM ET, as the number of games played in the fourth set will determine the outcome of this market.
This market refers to the tennis match between Valentin Vacherot and Frances Tiafoe in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 4, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Valentin Vacherot' if Valentin Vacherot advances against Frances Tiafoe. This market will resolve to 'Frances Tiafoe' if Frances Tiafoe advances against Valentin Vacherot. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their books and incorporate a profit margin, while this market relies on traders directly expressing their beliefs about the likelihood of each outcome. As more information emerges – such as player form, injury reports, or even weather conditions – both prediction markets and sportsbooks will adjust their odds. However, this market may react more quickly to new information due to the continuous trading and diverse perspectives of its participants.
This market resolves around Sep 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on the official result of the Vacherot vs Tiafoe match as determined by the ATP tour. The platform will verify the result against widely available and trusted sources to determine which outcome corresponds to the actual event result. Traders holding shares in the winning outcome will be paid out according to the final share price at resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of shares in this market. Any news regarding player fitness – such as an injury to either Vacherot or Tiafoe – would likely cause significant movement. Changes in rankings, recent match performance, or even weather conditions at the US Open could also impact trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about playing conditions or a shift in public perception of either player's chances could also lead to price fluctuations. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding how this market evolves leading up to Sep 11, 2026.