TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,590,312
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,439,516,703
404,175
Markets across
30,277
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,685
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 6, 5:05 PM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks which player—Tommy Paul or Carlos Alcaraz—will win the fourth set in their US Open ATP match, scheduled for September 6, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. Currently, Polymarket gives a 100.0% probability to Tommy Paul winning the set. The resolution source for this market is the official ATP Tour website at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Keep a close watch on the match itself, as the outcome will be determined by the results of the US Open fixture on or before the resolution date of September 13, 2026.
This market refers to the tennis match between Tommy Paul and Carlos Alcaraz in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 6, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tommy Paul' if Tommy Paul advances against Carlos Alcaraz. This market will resolve to 'Carlos Alcaraz' if Carlos Alcaraz advances against Tommy Paul. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than those found at traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, while prediction markets aim to reflect the true probability of an event as determined by traders. Therefore, this market may present odds that differ from those available at sportsbooks, potentially offering value to informed bettors. It's common to observe discrepancies, especially as new information emerges and market participants adjust their forecasts.
This market resolves around Sep 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Alcaraz vs Paul match as reported by recognized sports authorities. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine which outcome – a win for Alcaraz or Paul – is the correct one, and shares will be settled accordingly. Traders should monitor official sources for the final match result.
Several factors could influence the trading activity in this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or updates on their recent performance could significantly shift the odds. Unexpected announcements about either player's form or strategy could also drive price movements. Furthermore, major upsets in other matches within the US Open could affect overall confidence in certain players and impact this market. Public sentiment and analysis from tennis experts may also play a role in how traders adjust their positions.