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US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz
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US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz

Volume:
$2,194,369

US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Game Spread +/-6.5

 - Polymarket

US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Game Spread +/-6.5 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 6, 2026

Closed: Sep 6, 5:05 PM EST

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Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Game Spread +/-6.5

View
100%
56%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$19,359
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-2.5

100%
62%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$15,902
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Completed Match

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$6,218
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5

100%
36%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$3,532
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 1 O/U 8.5

100%
30%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,837
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 1 O/U 9.5

100%
42%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$8
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 4 Winner

50%
Yes 50¢No 50¢
—
N/A
$3,341
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz

0%
16%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,120,475
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Total Sets: O/U 3.5

0%
57%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,380
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 1 Winner

0%
31%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,088
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 3 Winner

0%
36%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,075
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Match O/U 36.5

0%
48%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,210
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 2 Winner

0%
29%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$840
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Total Sets: O/U 4.5

0%
24%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$454
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 1 O/U 10.5

0%
27%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$281
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Match O/U 38.5

0%
54%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$254
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Match O/U 40.5

0%
45%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$115
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 2 O/U 8.5

100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 2 O/U 9.5

0%
99%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 2 O/U 10.5

0%
99%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 3 O/U 8.5

100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 3 O/U 9.5

100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 3 O/U 10.5

0%
98%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 4 O/U 8.5

50%
48%
Yes 50¢No 50¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 4 O/U 9.5

50%
48%
Yes 50¢No 50¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 26

Intro

This market tracks which player—Tommy Paul or Carlos Alcaraz—will win the fourth set in their US Open ATP match, scheduled for September 6, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. Currently, Polymarket gives a 100.0% probability to Tommy Paul winning the set. The resolution source for this market is the official ATP Tour website at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Keep a close watch on the match itself, as the outcome will be determined by the results of the US Open fixture on or before the resolution date of September 13, 2026.

Polymarket

This market refers to the tennis match between Tommy Paul and Carlos Alcaraz in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 6, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tommy Paul' if Tommy Paul advances against Carlos Alcaraz. This market will resolve to 'Carlos Alcaraz' if Carlos Alcaraz advances against Tommy Paul. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Alcaraz vs Paul match tracks the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. You can see how the implied probability of each outcome changes over time, reflecting the collective predictions of traders. Currently, the total volume for this market is $2,187,932, with $2,149,055 traded in the last 24 hours. The dashboard provides a real-time view of market sentiment regarding who will win this highly anticipated match.

Typically, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than those found at traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, while prediction markets aim to reflect the true probability of an event as determined by traders. Therefore, this market may present odds that differ from those available at sportsbooks, potentially offering value to informed bettors. It's common to observe discrepancies, especially as new information emerges and market participants adjust their forecasts.

This market resolves around Sep 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Alcaraz vs Paul match as reported by recognized sports authorities. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine which outcome – a win for Alcaraz or Paul – is the correct one, and shares will be settled accordingly. Traders should monitor official sources for the final match result.

Several factors could influence the trading activity in this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or updates on their recent performance could significantly shift the odds. Unexpected announcements about either player's form or strategy could also drive price movements. Furthermore, major upsets in other matches within the US Open could affect overall confidence in certain players and impact this market. Public sentiment and analysis from tennis experts may also play a role in how traders adjust their positions.