TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 3, 4:19 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Taylor Fritz and Mattia Bellucci in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 2, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Taylor Fritz' if Taylor Fritz advances against Mattia Bellucci. This market will resolve to 'Mattia Bellucci' if Mattia Bellucci advances against Taylor Fritz. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Taylor Fritz and Mattia Bellucci in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 2, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Taylor Fritz' if Taylor Fritz advances against Mattia Bellucci. This market will resolve to 'Mattia Bellucci' if Mattia Bellucci advances against Taylor Fritz. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than those found at traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market represents the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply varying levels of confidence in a particular result. It’s common to see prediction markets move faster to incorporate new information than sportsbooks, potentially offering a more real-time assessment of probabilities.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where users buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy shares in a particular outcome, the price increases, reflecting growing confidence. Conversely, selling pressure lowers the price, indicating decreasing confidence. This dynamic process ensures the market price reflects the aggregate expectations of all participants.
This market resolves around Sep 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the match between Taylor Fritz and Mattia Bellucci as reported by a recognized tennis authority. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine which outcome corresponds to the actual event outcome. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final result.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions (like weather affecting an outdoor court), or even significant shifts in public perception could cause traders to adjust their positions. Unexpected results in other matches involving these players, or even comments from tennis analysts, could also move the market. Ultimately, any information that alters the perceived probability of either player winning will likely be reflected in the trading activity.