TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 2, 5:31 PM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether Rafael Jodar will advance against Yunchaokete Bu in their US Open ATP match, specifically resolving to ‘Rafael Jodar’ if he wins. Currently, Polymarket assigns a 100.0% probability to Jodar vs. Bu: Set 4 Games O/U 8.5. The resolution source for this market is the official ATP Tour website at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Keep an eye on the originally scheduled match time of September 1, 2026 at 2:00PM ET, as this is when the outcome will become clear and the market will resolve.
This market refers to the tennis match between Rafael Jodar and Yunchaokete Bu in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 1, 2026 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Rafael Jodar' if Rafael Jodar advances against Yunchaokete Bu. This market will resolve to 'Yunchaokete Bu' if Yunchaokete Bu advances against Rafael Jodar. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market allows traders to freely adjust probabilities based on their own research and information. If there's a significant discrepancy, it might suggest that the market believes a sportsbook has mispriced the event, or that new information hasn't been fully incorporated into sportsbook lines. It's common to see prediction markets outperform traditional odds over time, especially when a large number of participants contribute to pricing.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of a particular outcome. As more shares are purchased for a specific outcome, its price increases, reflecting a higher implied probability. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of shares directly translates to the market's forecast, and changes in price are driven by supply and demand as traders react to new information or shifts in sentiment about the Jodar vs Bu match. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the collective intelligence of its participants.
This market resolves around Sep 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Jodar vs Bu match as reported by official tournament sources. The market will determine which player won the match, and shares will pay out accordingly to those who correctly predicted the outcome. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result to understand when the market is settled.
Several factors could influence the price of shares in this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or unexpected performance in prior matches could shift trader sentiment. Updates on player form, head-to-head records, or even weather forecasts impacting the match could also cause significant movement. Strong opinions from tennis analysts or unexpected betting activity in traditional sportsbooks could also influence trading activity on Polymarket, leading to price adjustments as traders reassess the probabilities.