TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 7, 10:08 PM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether Karen Khachanov will advance against Learner Tien in their US Open ATP match, originally scheduled for September 7, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. Currently, Polymarket gives a 100.0% probability to “US Open ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Learner Tien” and a 100.0% probability to “US Open ATP: Completed Match: Karen Khachanov vs Learner Tien”. The resolution source for this market is the official ATP Tour website at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Keep an eye on the match outcome itself, as this market will resolve based on the result of the match on or around the resolution date of September 14, 2026.
This market refers to the tennis match between Karen Khachanov and Learner Tien in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 7, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Karen Khachanov' if Karen Khachanov advances against Learner Tien. This market will resolve to 'Learner Tien' if Learner Tien advances against Karen Khachanov. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on models and internal analysis, while this market is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, particularly before significant events or when new information emerges. Examining these differences can be insightful, as each represents a unique assessment of the likely outcome of the Khachanov vs Tien match.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where participants buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy shares in a particular outcome, its price increases, and vice versa. This dynamic process ensures that the market price quickly incorporates new information and reflects the collective expectations of the traders. The current price indicates what traders, as a group, believe is the likelihood of a specific player winning the match.
This market resolves around Sep 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Khachanov vs Tien match as reported by a recognized tennis authority. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine the winning outcome. Traders who held shares in the correct outcome will be entitled to a payout based on the final market price at the time of resolution. It’s important to monitor the event’s progress leading up to this date.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Sep 14, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or unexpected performance in preceding matches could significantly shift trader sentiment. Updates on player form, tactical adjustments, or even weather forecasts impacting the match could all lead to price movements. Additionally, large trades by individual participants or groups could temporarily influence the market, though these are often corrected by other traders. Monitoring tennis news and analysis will be key to understanding potential catalysts for price changes.