TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 5, 5:47 PM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether Karen Khachanov will advance against Benjamin Bonzi in their US Open ATP match, originally scheduled for September 4, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. Currently, Polymarket gives a 100.0% probability to the outcome of “Khachanov vs. Bonzi: Match O/U 40.5”. The resolution source for this market is the official ATP Tour website at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Keep an eye on the match result itself, as the market will resolve based on whether Khachanov advances following the conclusion of the match on or before the resolution date of September 11, 2026.
This market refers to the tennis match between Karen Khachanov and Benjamin Bonzi in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 4, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Karen Khachanov' if Karen Khachanov advances against Benjamin Bonzi. This market will resolve to 'Benjamin Bonzi' if Benjamin Bonzi advances against Karen Khachanov. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect a different kind of wisdom than sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market relies on the collective intelligence of traders who are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. Often, you’ll find that this market moves independently of sportsbook lines, especially as new information becomes available or as public sentiment shifts. Discrepancies can arise due to differing opinions on player form, potential upsets, or even external factors influencing the match.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of a particular outcome. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. The market’s price is determined solely by supply and demand among traders on Polymarket.
This market resolves around Sep 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Khachanov vs Bonzi match as reported by a recognized tennis authority. The market will determine which player wins the match, and the outcome will be settled based on that official result. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies for future events.
Several signals could significantly move this market before resolution. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or even unexpected weather forecasts could impact trader sentiment. Strong performances by either player in preceding matches, or even comments from tennis analysts, could also shift the odds. Furthermore, significant trading volume, driven by informed traders reacting to new information, could cause rapid price adjustments in this market. Monitoring these factors will be key to understanding potential shifts in the predicted outcome.