TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 4, 3:19 PM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether Daniil Medvedev will advance against Arthur Rinderknech in their US Open ATP match, originally scheduled for September 4, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. Currently, Polymarket gives a 100.0% probability to the outcome of “Medvedev vs. Rinderknech: Match O/U 40.5”. The resolution source for this market is the official ATP Tour website at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Keep an eye on the match itself, as the outcome will be determined by the result of the fixture on September 4, 2026.
This market refers to the tennis match between Daniil Medvedev and Arthur Rinderknech in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 4, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Daniil Medvedev' if Daniil Medvedev advances against Arthur Rinderknech. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Rinderknech' if Arthur Rinderknech advances against Daniil Medvedev. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market allows traders to freely express their beliefs about the outcome. If a significant number of people believe a sportsbook is mispricing the match, the prediction market odds will likely diverge. It’s common to see prediction markets more accurately forecast probabilities, especially as the event approaches and more information becomes available, though discrepancies can occur due to differing risk appetites and information access.
This market resolves around Sep 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the US Open ATP match between Daniil Medvedev and Arthur Rinderknech, as reported by official tournament sources. The market will determine whether the match was completed or not, and if completed, which player won. The outcome will be determined by the official score published by the tournament organizers.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or unexpected performance in preceding matches could shift trader sentiment. A strong performance by Arthur Rinderknech in another tournament leading up to the match, or reports of Medvedev being unwell, could significantly impact the odds. Furthermore, major shifts in public opinion, reflected in analysis from sports commentators, could also drive changes in the price of shares in this market.