TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 4, 2:44 PM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether Tommy Paul will win by more than 3.5 games against Alexander Bublik in their US Open ATP match. Currently, Polymarket gives a 100.0% probability to Game Spread: Paul (-3.5) vs Bublik (+3.5). The resolution source for this market is the official ATP Tour website at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Keep an eye on the originally scheduled match time of September 4, 2026 at 11:00AM ET, as this is when the outcome will become clear and the market will resolve.
This market refers to the tennis match between Alexander Bublik and Tommy Paul in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 4, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alexander Bublik' if Alexander Bublik advances against Tommy Paul. This market will resolve to 'Tommy Paul' if Tommy Paul advances against Alexander Bublik. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of a particular outcome – in this case, either Bublik or Paul winning the match. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand; if more people believe Bublik will win, the price of shares representing that outcome will increase. Conversely, if sentiment shifts towards Paul, his share price will rise. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the collective intelligence of all participants.
This market resolves around Sep 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on the official result of the Bublik vs Paul match as determined by the ATP tour. The platform will verify the winner, and shares will be settled accordingly. Traders holding shares in the winning player will receive a payout, while those holding shares in the losing player will not. The exact timing of settlement may vary slightly depending on the speed of official result confirmation.
Several factors could influence the odds in this market. Any news regarding player injuries to either Bublik or Paul would likely cause significant movement. Changes in their recent form, such as a surprising win or loss in a preceding tournament, could also shift sentiment. Unexpected weather conditions at the US Open could also play a role, potentially favoring one player’s style of play over the other. Finally, any significant shifts in public opinion, perhaps driven by expert analysis or social media buzz, could also impact trading activity and the price of shares on Polymarket.