TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 4, 9:17 PM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether there will be over or under 8.5 games played in the fourth set of the Alex Michelsen versus Daniel Merida Aguilar match at the US Open ATP tournament. Currently, Polymarket gives a 100.0% probability to “Michelsen vs. Aguilar: Set 4 Games O/U 8.5”. The resolution source for this market is the official ATP Tour website at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Keep an eye on the match itself, originally scheduled for September 4, 2026 at 11:00AM ET, as the outcome will depend on the actual number of games played in the fourth set.
This market refers to the tennis match between Alex Michelsen and Daniel Merida Aguilar in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 4, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alex Michelsen' if Alex Michelsen advances against Daniel Merida Aguilar. This market will resolve to 'Daniel Merida Aguilar' if Daniel Merida Aguilar advances against Alex Michelsen. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market’s prices are driven purely by traders’ willingness to buy or sell, representing their collective belief about the outcome. If there's a significant discrepancy, it might indicate that the market perceives information differently than sportsbooks, or that one venue has more informed traders. It’s common to see prediction markets more accurately forecast probabilities than traditional odds, especially as the event approaches.
This market resolves around Sep 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the US Open ATP match between Alex Michelsen and Daniel Merida Aguilar. The platform will verify the result against widely available and trusted sources to determine the winning outcome and settle the market accordingly. Traders will be able to claim their winnings once the resolution is finalized.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or updates on their recent performance could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected results in other matches involving these players, or even broader tournament upsets, might also cause the market to react. Furthermore, significant trading volume from informed participants could also drive price movements, reflecting new information or a change in overall market perception. Keep an eye on tennis news and analysis leading up to the match.