TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
US GDP growth in Q2 2026?
Total volume:
$62,540
Volume 24h:
$750
6%
Liquidity:
$11,682
55%
Open interest:
$24,333
0.14%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether US real GDP growth in Q2 2026 will exceed specific thresholds, as measured by the BEA's seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate. Both Kalshi and Polymarket are pricing the same underlying economic metric but with different market structures and threshold definitions.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms use identical data source (BEA Advance Estimate), identical measurement methodology (seasonally adjusted, annualized), and identical fallback procedures. The only structural difference is market design: Kalshi uses cumulative Yes thresholds while Polymarket uses discrete range brackets, but both resolve to the same underlying GDP figure.
Primary resolution logic:
Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Advance Estimate for Q2 2026 real GDP growth, published July 30, 2026, at https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productCore resolution logic:
- Resolution uses the seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate GDP growth rate for Q2 2026
- Kalshi: Markets resolve Yes if growth exceeds 1.0%, 1.5%, 2.0%, or 2.5% respectively
- Polymarket: Markets resolve based on discrete ranges (less than 1.0%, 1.0-1.5%, 1.5-2.0%, 2.0-2.5%, 2.5-3.0%, 3.0-3.5%, greater than 3.5%)
- When a value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, the higher range bracket applies
- Post-release revisions to GDP data are excluded; only the initial Advance Estimate is used
- If Advance Estimate is not released, the first officially published figure (second or third estimate) becomes the resolution source
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Exact threshold match: If GDP growth is exactly 1.5%, Polymarket resolves to the higher bracket (1.5-2.0%). Kalshi's 1.5% threshold market resolves Yes.
- Advance Estimate unavailable: If the July 30, 2026 Advance Estimate is not released, resolution uses the first officially published figure from BEA (second or third estimate), or the most recent previous figure if no estimate is released by the next quarter's advance estimate date.
- Post-release revisions: Any GDP revisions published after the Advance Estimate release are explicitly ignored for resolution purposes.
- Data integrity failure: If BEA does not publish any official GDP figure for Q2 2026 by the scheduled date for Q3 2026's Advance Estimate, resolution defaults to the most recent previously released BEA figure.
Timing:
Resolution occurs on or shortly after July 30, 2026, when the BEA publishes the Q2 2026 Advance Estimate. Markets settle based on the initial release; subsequent revisions do not affect settlement.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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