TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 5, 11:46 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for either UNLV or Hawai'i in the first half of their college football game. Each market corresponds to a specific point differential threshold that must be exceeded by the winning team to resolve as 'Yes'.
The markets resolve based on the point differential in the first half of the UNLV vs Hawai'i college football game scheduled for September 5, 2026. For UNLV markets, resolution occurs if UNLV wins the first half by more than the specified point margin (ranging from 1.5 to 17.5 points). For Hawai'i markets, resolution occurs if Hawai'i wins the first half by more than the specified point margin (ranging from 2.5 to 17.5 points). Only points scored during the first half count. If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, the markets remain open and resolve based on the official result. If the game does not start within 48 hours, all markets resolve to a fair price. Kalshi disclaims any affiliation with the NCAA, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own analysis. Therefore, you may see discrepancies between the implied probabilities in this market and those offered by traditional sportsbooks. These differences can arise from varying information sources, differing risk assessments, or simply the collective insight of prediction market participants.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the first half spread of the UNLV vs Hawai'i football game. The price of a contract ranges from 0 to 100, representing the probability of a 'yes' outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and express their views, the price adjusts to reflect the collective expectation. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to efficiently aggregate information and provide a real-time assessment of the potential outcome.
This market resolves around Sep 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official first half spread of the UNLV vs Hawai'i football game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final official result as reported by the governing sports authority. Traders holding contracts on the correct outcome will receive a payout of 100 cents per contract, while those holding contracts on the incorrect outcome will receive nothing. The exact timing of the resolution may vary slightly depending on the official reporting process.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the game concludes. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the UNLV or Hawai'i teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions, could also shift expectations. Unexpected announcements about coaching strategies or team lineups might also move the market. Finally, large trading volume from informed participants could signal a shift in sentiment and cause the price to adjust accordingly.