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United States vs. Paraguay - First Team to Score
polymarket
kalshi

United States vs. Paraguay - First Team to Score

Volume:
$305,034

USA

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 13, 2026

Closed: Jun 12, 9:38 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

USA

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$110,263
N/A
N/A
$90,837
Settled
Yes
polymarket

United States

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$63,262
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Paraguay

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$62,907
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Paraguay

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$18,268
N/A
N/A
$17,202
Settled
No
polymarket

Neither

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$41,147
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

No Goal

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$9,188
N/A
N/A
$8,269
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group covers the first team to score in the United States vs. Paraguay FIFA World Cup match scheduled for June 12, 2026. Markets resolve based on which team (if any) scores first during the match, with different platforms applying different time windows for resolution.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket restricts resolution to 90 minutes plus stoppage time only, explicitly excluding extra time. Kalshi includes the entire match including extra time periods. This creates different resolution windows and potential outcome divergence in matches reaching extra time without a regulation goal.Hero tip: Understand your platform's time window before trading. Polymarket offers a narrower, regulation-focused bet; Kalshi offers full-match coverage. In a tight match likely to reach extra time, these create different risk profiles. Arbitrage opportunities may exist if one platform prices in extra-time scenarios differently.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Regulation-only scope: First goal must occur within 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shootouts explicitly excluded from resolution. Cancellation resolves to Neither. Postponement keeps market open until completion.
  • Kalshi: Full-match scope: First goal can occur at any point during regulation, stoppage time, or extra time periods. Market covers the entire game duration. Resolution logic appears to resolve Yes for all three outcomes (USA first, Paraguay first, or neither), which is logically contradictory and unresolvable.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming match between United States and Paraguay, scheduled for June 12, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "United States" if United States are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Paraguay" if Paraguay are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by which team records the first goal during the entire USA vs Paraguay professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for Jun 12, 2026, encompassing regulation time, stoppage time, and any extra time periods. If the first goal of the match is an own goal, resolution is based on the team awarded the goal. The market includes three possible outcomes: USA scores first, Paraguay scores first, or no goal is scored during the match.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates real-time odds and trading activity across Polymarket and Kalshi for the United States vs. Paraguay first-goal market. It displays the consensus probability that either team scores first, alongside live volume and price movements on each platform. By tracking both venues simultaneously, you gain a cross-platform view of how traders are positioning ahead of the match, revealing which outcome commands stronger conviction and where liquidity concentrates. This multi-venue perspective helps identify arbitrage opportunities and consensus shifts as match conditions evolve.

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi operate on peer-to-peer trading, where odds reflect real-time supply and demand rather than sportsbook margins. Prediction market prices often converge toward true probability faster than traditional sportsbooks because traders face direct financial incentive to identify mispricings. For this United States vs. Paraguay first-goal event, comparing market odds to major sportsbooks reveals whether one venue has priced the matchup more efficiently. Sportsbooks typically build in wider margins, while prediction markets reward sharp positioning with tighter spreads and deeper liquidity.

Team news—injuries to key forwards, defensive absences, or lineup changes—can significantly shift first-goal odds. Pre-match analysis, recent form, head-to-head scoring patterns, and tactical adjustments announced closer to kickoff all influence trader positioning. Weather conditions, venue factors, and referee assignments may also impact early-game dynamics. As the match approaches, odds typically tighten as information asymmetry decreases. Live betting activity during the opening minutes can cause sharp repricing if either team dominates possession or creates early chances, reflecting real-time match flow.