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$134.2b

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$126,324,530

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$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

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MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina - First Team to Score
polymarket
predict
kalshi

Who will score first: United States or Bosnia and Herzegovina?

Volume:
$1,168,187

USA

all

3 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 2, 2026

Closed: Jul 1, 9:09 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

USA

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$245,635
N/A
N/A
$183,813
Settled
Yes
polymarket

United States

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$85,409
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

USA

View
N/A
N/A
—
$119,640
$33,100
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

No Goal

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$413,120
N/A
N/A
$337,629
Settled
No
polymarket

Neither

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$63,941
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Neither

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
$17,631
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Bosnia and Herzegovina

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$235,007
N/A
N/A
$195,069
Settled
No
polymarket

Bosnia and Herzegovina

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$50,863
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

BIH

View
N/A
N/A
—
$811
$23,480
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 9

Intro

This market tracks which team scores first during the United States versus Bosnia and Herzegovina FIFA World Cup match on July 1, 2026. The aggregated consensus across Polymarket, Predict, and Kalshi shows the United States at 100.0% to score first. Resolution will be determined by official statistics from the governing body or event organizers, with credible reporting used as backup if final match statistics are not published within 2 hours of the match's conclusion. Watch for the match kickoff on July 1, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET, as the first goal scored during the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time will determine the outcome.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi contains a logical contradiction where all three mutually exclusive outcomes (USA scores first, Bosnia scores first, no goal) are defined to resolve YES. Additionally, Kalshi's time window (entire game including extra time) diverges from Polymarket and Predict (90 minutes plus stoppage only).Hero tip: Kalshi market is logically unresolvable as written—do not trade. Use Polymarket or Predict for reliable first-goal markets. Be aware that if the match reaches extra time without a goal in regulation, Polymarket/Predict resolve to Neither while Kalshi would theoretically continue (if the logical contradiction were fixed).

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Defines three mutually exclusive outcomes but resolves all to YES: USA first goal = YES, Bosnia first goal = YES, no goal = YES. Time window includes entire game (regulation, stoppage, extra time). This creates a logical impossibility.
  • Polymarket: Three-outcome market (USA, Bosnia, Neither) resolving based only on first 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalties excluded. Resolves to Neither if game cancelled with no makeup. Key Quote: Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded.
  • Predict: Three-outcome market (USA, Bosnia, Neither) with identical logic to Polymarket: first 90 minutes plus stoppage only. Extra time and penalties excluded. Resolves to Neither if game cancelled with no makeup.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming match between United States and Bosnia and Herzegovina, scheduled for July 1, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "United States" if United States are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Bosnia and Herzegovina" if Bosnia and Herzegovina are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Kalshi

This event resolves based on which team scores the first goal in the USA vs Bosnia and Herzegovina professional FIFA World Cup soccer match originally scheduled for July 1, 2026. The first goal is determined across the entire match duration, including regulation time, stoppage time, and any extra time periods that may be played. If an own goal is scored first, the market resolves based on the team to which the goal is officially awarded. The event has three possible outcomes: USA scores first, Bosnia and Herzegovina scores first, or no goal is scored during the entire match. This market and associated products have not been endorsed by FIFA, and any references to FIFA or the FIFA World Cup are descriptive only and do not indicate endorsement or affiliation.

Predict

In the upcoming match between United States and Bosnia and Herzegovina, scheduled for July 1, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "United States" if United States are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Bosnia and Herzegovina" if Bosnia and Herzegovina are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi derive odds directly from trader positions rather than oddsmakers, often reflecting sharper, crowd-sourced probability estimates. Sportsbooks set fixed lines designed to balance action and lock in margins, whereas this market adjusts continuously as new bets flow in. Prediction market prices can diverge significantly from traditional sportsbook lines, especially as event time approaches, because traders have direct financial incentive to identify mispricing. For major soccer matches, these differences tend to narrow closer to kickoff as information converges.

Polymarket and Kalshi operate under different market mechanics, user bases, and liquidity profiles. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform's fee structure, leverage rules, and trader demographics can push prices apart temporarily. Polymarket may attract different participant types or see concentrated positions that move odds away from Kalshi's consensus. These gaps typically close as arbitrageurs exploit pricing inefficiencies, but they can persist if one platform has deeper liquidity or if regulatory or technical factors limit cross-platform trading.

Team news—injuries to key forwards, lineup announcements, or tactical shifts—can significantly reprrice this market. Recent form, head-to-head scoring patterns, and home-field advantage also influence trader positioning. Weather conditions on match day, referee assignments, and late-breaking roster changes may trigger sharp moves in the final hours. Large trader positions or sudden volume spikes can also signal new information or conviction, prompting others to adjust their bets before kickoff.