TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Target Streams: 109,668,656
- Kalshi
Target Streams: 109,668,656 - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 11, 2026
Closed: Jul 11, 2:50 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks worldwide streaming performance for the album Un Verano Sin Ti during the week of July 03-09. Resolution depends on whether the album accumulates more than 109,668,656 total streams across all platforms during this specific tracking period.
Kalshi
If Un Verano Sin Ti has above 109,668,656 Worldwide Streams during the July 03 - July 09, tracking week, then the market resolves to Yes.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they aggregate real-money bets from many participants with direct financial incentives to forecast accurately. While entertainment analysts may rely on studio announcements, release schedules, and industry reporting, this market synthesizes that same information plus trader conviction into a single probability. Comparing the two reveals whether the crowd sees a higher or lower likelihood than expert commentary suggests, highlighting areas where market participants may have spotted signals analysts missed.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing yes or no outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each share reflects the collective assessment of the probability that the streaming release will happen. As new developments emerge—studio announcements, release confirmations, or schedule changes—traders adjust their positions, moving the price up or down to match updated expectations.
This market resolves around Jul 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution hinges on whether the streaming release occurs within the defined window. Once the outcome is established and verified, traders holding the correct position receive their payout, while the market closes.
Key catalysts include official announcements from the streaming platform or artist representatives confirming or delaying the release date, chart performance or cultural momentum building anticipation, and any competing entertainment releases that might affect timing. Industry news about platform strategy, licensing deals, or production updates can shift trader conviction significantly. Social media buzz and fan speculation also influence market activity, as traders interpret community engagement as a proxy for release likelihood and audience demand.
