TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$217,487,446
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,300,303,450
498,643
Markets across
13,761
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,763
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
UMBC Retrievers vs. Marshall Thundering Herd (W)
Volume:
$359,745
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the WBB game between UMBC Retrievers and Marshall Thundering Herd on March 23 at 6:00 PM ET. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi resolves YES for either outcome (Marshall OR UMBC wins), making the market logically contradictory and unresolvable. Polymarket correctly resolves to a single winner (UMBC Retrievers or Marshall Thundering Herd). This is a data integrity failure on Kalshi.Hero Tip:
Do not trade on Kalshi's version of this market. Kalshi's rules state the market resolves YES if Marshall wins AND YES if UMBC wins — meaning every possible outcome resolves YES, which violates basic binary market logic. Polymarket's market is the only resolvable version and should be treated as the authoritative settlement source.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Outlier (correct logic): Resolves to exactly one outcome — UMBC Retrievers if UMBC wins, Marshall Thundering Herd if Marshall wins. Includes postponement and cancellation rules. 'If the UMBC Retrievers win, the market will resolve to UMBC Retrievers. If the Marshall Thundering Herd win, the market will resolve to Marshall Thundering Herd.'
- Kalshi: Outlier (logical failure): States 'If Marshall wins... then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If UMBC wins... then the market resolves to Yes,' creating a tautology where all outcomes resolve YES. 'If Marshall wins the UMBC at Marshall women's college basketball game originally scheduled for Mar 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If UMBC wins the UMBC at Marshall women's college basketball game originally scheduled for Mar 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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