TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$113,466,932

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,423,222,590

402,751

Markets across

30,217

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,632

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card)
kalshi
polymarket
predict

UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card)

Volume:
$7,791,762

Bo Nickal

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 15, 2026

Closed: Jun 14, 9:35 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Bo Nickal

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,932,745
N/A
N/A
$2,326,270
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$731,083
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Nickal to win by KO/TKO?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5,009
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$974
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.9¢
N/A
$684
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Kyle Daukaus

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,015,738
N/A
N/A
$3,736,505
Settled
No
predict

Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
$1,410
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$67,593
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,190
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
0.3¢
N/A
$10,064
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Daukaus to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,046
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,226
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 12

Description

This event group covers the professional MMA fight between Kyle Daukaus and Bo Nickal scheduled for June 14, 2026, at UFC Freedom 250 (Topuria vs. Gaethje card) in the middleweight division. Markets span fight winner, method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, decision), distance (rounds), and draw/no-contest scenarios across multiple prediction platforms.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All three platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, Predict) apply identical resolution logic: official UFC declaration determines winner; draws, technical draws, no contests, and postponements beyond June 28, 2026 resolve to 50-50; method-of-victory and round-duration markets use consistent thresholds and timing.Primary resolution logic: Official UFC information from ufc.com/events

Core resolution logic:

  • Fight winner resolves to the fighter officially declared winner by UFC; if draw, technical draw, no contest, or not scored, resolves to 50-50
  • KO/TKO resolution includes referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, and corner stoppage; disqualifications resolve to No
  • Submission resolution includes tapout, verbal submission, and technical submission (referee stoppage due to submission hold)
  • Decision/Distance resolution requires fight to complete all scheduled rounds with judges' scorecards; draws by judges' scorecards after all rounds resolve to Yes for distance
  • Round-over/under thresholds use 2:30 mark per round (e.g., Over 0.5 Rounds = past 2:30 of Round 1); exact-time matches resolve to 50-50
  • Cancellation or postponement beyond June 28, 2026 resolves all markets to 50-50

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Draw or Technical Draw: Resolves to 50-50 for winner market; resolves to No for KO/TKO and submission markets; resolves to Yes for distance market if judges' scorecards completed all rounds
  • No Contest or Not Scored: All markets resolve to 50-50
  • Disqualification: Winner market resolves to 50-50; KO/TKO and submission markets resolve to No; distance market resolves to 50-50
  • Exact Round Threshold: If fight ends exactly at threshold time (e.g., 2:30 of Round 1 for 0.5 line), round-over/under markets resolve to 50-50
  • Postponement Beyond June 28, 2026: All markets resolve to 50-50
Timing: Resolution occurs on or immediately after June 14, 2026, upon official UFC declaration of fight outcome. If postponed, resolution deadline is June 28, 2026; postponements beyond this date trigger 50-50 resolution for all markets.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Kyle Daukaus" if Kyle Daukaus is officially declared the winner of the fight against Bo Nickal at UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje, scheduled for June 14, 2026. It will resolve to "Bo Nickal" if Bo Nickal is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond June 28, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

If Bo Nickal wins the Nickal vs Daukaus professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Jun 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Kyle Daukaus wins the Nickal vs Daukaus professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Jun 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Predict

This market will resolve to "Kyle Daukaus" if Kyle Daukaus is officially declared the winner of the fight against Bo Nickal at UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje, scheduled for June 14, 2026. It will resolve to "Bo Nickal" if Bo Nickal is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond June 28, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Polymarket often diverge from traditional sportsbook lines because they reflect real-time crowd sentiment and continuous trading rather than fixed bookmaker margins. Sportsbooks adjust odds to balance liability and lock in profit; prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs dynamically. For the Nickal vs Daukaus fight, comparing Polymarket implied probabilities to major sportsbook spreads and moneylines can reveal where public perception on the prediction market differs from professional oddsmakers' assessments, potentially signaling value or consensus gaps.

On Kalshi, the Nickal vs Daukaus fight is priced as a binary contract on whether Kyle Daukaus will win the bout. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. The current implied probability reflects trader positioning and recent volume activity. Kalshi's order-book mechanism allows traders to buy or sell shares at prices ranging from 0 to 100 cents, with each cent representing a one-percentage-point probability increment. Prices update continuously as new orders execute, and the market remains active until the fight concludes and the outcome is verified.

Key catalysts include fighter injury reports, training camp updates, and official UFC announcements regarding the bout. Weigh-in results, recent performance footage, and analyst commentary can shift market sentiment significantly. Social media activity, betting action from sharp bettors, and news about either fighter's conditioning or strategy may trigger price swings. Fight cancellations, opponent changes, or late withdrawals would immediately impact the market. Additionally, developments in related UFC events or broader MMA news can influence trader confidence in the Nickal vs Daukaus outcome as the June event approaches.