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UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)
polymarket
predict
kalshi

UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)

Volume:
$36,364,828

Ciryl Gane

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 15, 2026

Closed: Jun 15, 12:09 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Ciryl Gane

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6,330,727
N/A
N/A
$5,143,946
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Gane to win by KO/TKO?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$31,743
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5,925,354
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Alex Pereira

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$23,899,671
N/A
N/A
$22,343,667
Settled
No
predict

Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira

View
N/A
N/A
—
$5,921
$7,475
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$11,426
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$662
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$54,327
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Pereira to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$49,766
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$45,519
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,290
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 3.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,742
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$666
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 4.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$460
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 14

Description

This event group covers the UFC heavyweight main card fight between Ciryl Gane and Alex Pereira scheduled for June 14, 2026 at UFC Freedom 250. Markets span multiple platforms and include winner determination, method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, decision), fight duration thresholds, and distance completion.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All three platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, Predict) apply identical resolution logic anchored to official UFC declaration, with consistent edge-case treatment for draws, no contests, and cancellations beyond June 28, 2026.Primary resolution logic: Official UFC declaration and information from ufc.com/events

Core resolution logic:

  • Winner determination: Resolves to the fighter officially declared winner by UFC; if draw, technical draw, no contest, or canceled/postponed beyond June 28, 2026, resolves 50-50
  • Method of victory (KO/TKO): Resolves Yes if fight ends by knockout, technical knockout, referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage; No if decision, submission, or draw; 50-50 if no contest or canceled/postponed beyond June 28, 2026
  • Method of victory (Submission): Resolves Yes if fight ends by tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to submission hold); No if decision, KO/TKO, or draw; 50-50 if no contest or canceled/postponed beyond June 28, 2026
  • Round duration (Over/Under thresholds at 0.5, 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5): Over resolves Yes if fight continues past the 2:30 mark of the specified round; Under resolves Yes if fight ends before 2:30 of that round; 50-50 if ends exactly at 2:30 threshold or if bout not scored/canceled/postponed beyond June 28, 2026
  • Fight to go the distance: Resolves Yes if fight completes all scheduled rounds and result determined by judges' scorecards (including judge-decided draws); No if ends early by stoppage, submission, or KO/TKO; 50-50 if no contest or canceled/postponed beyond June 28, 2026

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Exact threshold timing: If fight ends exactly at 2:30 of any round (e.g., 2:30 of Round 2 for 1.5 line), that market resolves 50-50
  • Draw or technical draw: All winner markets resolve 50-50; method-of-victory markets resolve No (except distance market which resolves Yes if judges' scorecards completed all rounds)
  • No contest or not scored: All markets resolve 50-50
  • Cancellation or postponement beyond June 28, 2026: All markets resolve 50-50
  • Disqualification: Winner markets resolve 50-50; method-of-victory markets (KO/TKO, submission) resolve No
Timing: Resolution occurs immediately upon official UFC declaration of fight outcome. Deadline for cancellation/postponement consideration is June 28, 2026; any postponement beyond this date triggers 50-50 resolution across all markets.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Ciryl Gane" if Ciryl Gane is officially declared the winner of the fight against Alex Pereira at UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje, scheduled for June 14, 2026. It will resolve to "Alex Pereira" if Alex Pereira is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond June 28, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the official result of the professional MMA fight scheduled for June 14, 2026. If the fight concludes with a decisive winner, the market for that fighter resolves to Yes. If the fight is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled fight finishes within two weeks. If the fight is declared a tie or no contest, both markets resolve to 50/50. If the fight is cancelled or rescheduled beyond two weeks, both markets resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules.

Predict

This market will resolve to "Ciryl Gane" if Ciryl Gane is officially declared the winner of the fight against Alex Pereira at UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje, scheduled for June 14, 2026. It will resolve to "Alex Pereira" if Alex Pereira is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond June 28, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-time consensus from thousands of independent traders betting their own capital, whereas traditional sportsbooks set odds to balance their book and lock in profit margins. Prediction markets often price fights more efficiently because traders face direct financial incentive to identify mispriced outcomes. Sportsbooks, by contrast, may adjust lines based on liability management or sharp action rather than pure probability. For UFC Freedom 250: Pereira vs Gane, comparing Polymarket implied probabilities to major sportsbook lines can reveal where the two pricing mechanisms diverge, signaling potential value or consensus shifts in how the fight is perceived.

On Kalshi, UFC Freedom 250: Pereira vs Gane is priced as a binary contract where traders buy or sell shares representing "Will Alex Pereira win the Pereira vs Gane professional MMA fight scheduled for Jun 14, 2026?" Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each share settles at $1 if the outcome occurs or $0 if it does not, making the current price directly equivalent to the implied probability. Kalshi's order-book model allows traders to set custom bid-ask spreads, creating dynamic pricing throughout the betting window. As fight day approaches and new information emerges—such as fighter weigh-ins, last-minute injuries, or training camp reports—the contract price adjusts to reflect updated market expectations.