TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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UFC Fight Night: Yan Xiaonan vs. Denise Gomes (Women's Strawweight, Main Card)
polymarket
kalshi

UFC Fight Night: Yan Xiaonan vs. Denise Gomes (Women's Strawweight, Main Card)

Volume:
$2,388,760

Denise Gomes

 - Kalshi

Denise Gomes - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 29, 2026

Closed: Aug 29, 8:19 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Denise Gomes

View
100%
58%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$606,514
N/A
N/A
$460,292
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
5%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$3,162
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
100%
70%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.8¢
N/A
$778
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Gomes to win by KO/TKO?

View
100%
85%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.9¢
N/A
$646
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Xiaonan Yan

View
0%
60%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,373,618
N/A
N/A
$1,213,378
Settled
No
polymarket

Yan Xiaonan vs. Denise Gomes

View
0%
58%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$384,508
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
0%
71%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,927
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
0%
70%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,641
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,509
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Xiaonan to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
12%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$452
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
0%
92%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks whether the UFC Fight Night bout between Yan Xiaonan and Denise Gomes will last over or under 0.5 rounds. The aggregated consensus probability for the leading outcome, O/U 0.5 Rounds, is 100.0% across Polymarket and Kalshi. Resolution is based on the official UFC announcement. Watch for the scheduled fight date on August 29, 2026, as it will determine the market outcome.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All markets across Polymarket and Kalshi resolve based on the same official UFC outcome for the Yan Xiaonan vs. Denise Gomes fight with consistent rules for wins, losses, methods, and edge cases.Primary resolution logic: Official UFC announcement

Core resolution logic:

  • The winner is determined by the UFC's official declaration.
  • Methods of victory (KO/TKO, submission) follow UFC's official determination.
  • Rounds lasted and duration thresholds are based on official round-by-round timing.
  • Cancellations, postponements beyond September 12, 2026, draws, technical draws, No Contest, or disqualifications resolve specific markets to 50-50 where applicable.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Draw or Technical Draw: Resolves the main winner market to 50-50; resolves 'Fight to Go the Distance' to Yes if all scheduled rounds are completed; resolves method-of-victory markets to No.
  • No Contest or Disqualification: Resolves the main winner market to 50-50; resolves all method-of-victory and duration markets to 50-50 where applicable.
  • Postponement beyond September 12, 2026: Resolves all markets to 50-50 where applicable.
Timing: Resolution occurs immediately after the official UFC announcement of the fight result, typically within 24 hours of the event.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yan Xiaonan" if Yan Xiaonan is officially declared the winner of the fight against Denise Gomes at UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song, scheduled for August 29, 2026. It will resolve to "Denise Gomes" if Denise Gomes is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 12, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

If Xiaonan Yan wins the Yan vs Gomes professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Aug 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Denise Gomes wins the Yan vs Gomes professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Aug 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on this market often differ from traditional sportsbook lines due to speculative dynamics and lower trading volume. While sportsbooks may set their lines based on broader public betting trends and analytical models, prediction markets reflect the aggregated views of informed traders. This can lead to more volatile price swings, especially as new information emerges — for example, injury updates or training performance clues.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through user-driven trading, while Kalshi may apply different liquidity models or risk management approaches. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. This can create pricing gaps, especially when trading volume is low. For the UFC strawweight title fight market, differences in how each platform handles order flow and market depth can lead to varied odds. Additionally, each venue may have unique listing formats or settlement timing nuances, further influencing their current prices.