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UFC Fight Night: Valesca Machado vs. Melissa Amaya (Women's Strawweight, Main Card)
polymarket

What is the result of Valesca Machado vs. Melissa Amaya?

Volume:
$184,825

Valesca Machado vs. Melissa Amaya

 - Polymarket

Valesca Machado vs. Melissa Amaya - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 27, 2026

Closed: Sep 26, 8:53 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Valesca Machado vs. Melissa Amaya

View
100%
33%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$177,656
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Machado to win by KO/TKO?

View
100%
75%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$785
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
100%
67%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$307
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Ends before Round 3?

View
100%
76%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$213
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Machado in Round 2

View
100%
79%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
19¢
N/A
$6
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
0%
69%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,405
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Ends before Round 2?

View
0%
12%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,277
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$990
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by decision?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$85
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Decision or Draw

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$77
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Amaya to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
26%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
100%
19%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Machado in Round 1

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Machado in Round 3

View
0%
19%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Amaya in Round 1

View
0%
19%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Amaya in Round 2

View
0%
18%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Amaya in Round 3

View
0%
17%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 19

Description

This market will resolve to "Valesca Machado" if Valesca Machado is officially declared the winner of the fight against Melissa Amaya at UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos, scheduled for September 26, 2026. It will resolve to "Melissa Amaya" if Melissa Amaya is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 10, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Valesca Machado" if Valesca Machado is officially declared the winner of the fight against Melissa Amaya at UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos, scheduled for September 26, 2026. It will resolve to "Melissa Amaya" if Melissa Amaya is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 10, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Machado vs. Amaya fight tracks the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. You can see how the implied probability of different outcomes shifts over time, reflecting the collective predictions of traders. Currently, the total volume for this market is $184,325, with $182,492 traded in the last 24 hours. This allows you to gauge market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities related to this women's strawweight bout.

Typically, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, while this market aims to represent the true probability as assessed by traders. You may find that this market's implied probabilities differ from those offered by sportsbooks, potentially reflecting differing expert opinions or information. However, it’s important to note that both sources are attempting to predict the same outcome – who will win the Machado vs. Amaya fight.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing different outcomes of the Machado vs. Amaya fight. The price of each share directly reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly, providing a dynamic and real-time view of expectations. The current price movements indicate how strongly traders believe each fighter will perform.

This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Machado vs. Amaya fight as declared by the UFC. The fighter who is officially declared the winner by the UFC will determine the winning outcome for this market. Any potential disputes or challenges to the official result will be considered based on the available evidence and established procedures.

Several signals could influence the trading activity in this market before Sep 27, 2026. News regarding fighter injuries, changes in training regimens, or even pre-fight press conference statements could all impact trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about fighter weight or health status would likely cause significant shifts in the odds. Additionally, any analysis from MMA experts or changes in betting trends at traditional sportsbooks could also move this market, as traders incorporate new information into their predictions for the Machado vs. Amaya fight.