TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
UFC Fight Night: Thiago Moises vs. Gauge Young (Lightweight, Prelims)
Volume:
$1,739,744
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the UFC Fight Night preliminary lightweight bout between Thiago Moises and Gauge Young, scheduled for April 18, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott. Markets track fight outcome (winner), method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, distance), and fight duration thresholds (0.5, 1.5, 2.5 rounds). All resolution determinations are based on official UFC records and declarations.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi market resolves YES if EITHER fighter wins (logical contradiction), while Polymarket markets resolve to specific fighters or outcomes. Kalshi's resolution logic is fundamentally unresolvable as written—it cannot distinguish between mutually exclusive outcomes.Hero Tip:
Avoid the Kalshi market entirely. It is logically broken and will resolve YES regardless of fight outcome, making it unsuitable for directional betting. All Polymarket markets have coherent, mutually exclusive resolution paths.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Seven distinct markets with mutually exclusive outcomes: Winner (Moises vs Young), Fight Distance (Yes/No), KO/TKO (Yes/No), Moises KO/TKO (Yes/No), Young KO/TKO (Yes/No), Submission (Yes/No), and Round Thresholds (Over/Under). Each market has clear, non-overlapping resolution criteria tied to official UFC results.
- Kalshi: Single market states: 'If Gauge Young wins...then resolves to Yes. If Thiago Moises wins...then resolves to Yes.' This creates a logical impossibility—the market resolves YES for both mutually exclusive outcomes (either fighter winning), leaving no path to NO resolution. Quote: 'If Gauge Young wins the Moises vs Young professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Apr 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Thiago Moises wins the Moises vs Young professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Apr 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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