TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,590,312

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,439,516,703

404,175

Markets across

30,277

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,685

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
UFC Fight Night: Thiago Moises vs. Gauge Young (Lightweight, Prelims)
kalshi
polymarket

UFC Fight Night: Thiago Moises vs. Gauge Young (Lightweight, Prelims)

Volume:
$1,739,744

Gauge Young

 - Kalshi

Gauge Young - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 19, 2026

Closed: Apr 18, 10:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Gauge Young

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$339,679
N/A
N/A
$266,937
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,151
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,543
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$531
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$186
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Thiago Moises vs. Gauge Young

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$946,983
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Thiago Moises

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$444,928
N/A
N/A
$354,496
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$862
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Moises to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$590
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$149
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Young to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$142
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This event group covers the UFC Fight Night preliminary lightweight bout between Thiago Moises and Gauge Young, scheduled for April 18, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott. Markets track fight outcome (winner), method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, distance), and fight duration thresholds (0.5, 1.5, 2.5 rounds). All resolution determinations are based on official UFC records and declarations.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi market resolves YES if EITHER fighter wins (logical contradiction), while Polymarket markets resolve to specific fighters or outcomes. Kalshi's resolution logic is fundamentally unresolvable as written—it cannot distinguish between mutually exclusive outcomes.Hero tip: Avoid the Kalshi market entirely. It is logically broken and will resolve YES regardless of fight outcome, making it unsuitable for directional betting. All Polymarket markets have coherent, mutually exclusive resolution paths.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Seven distinct markets with mutually exclusive outcomes: Winner (Moises vs Young), Fight Distance (Yes/No), KO/TKO (Yes/No), Moises KO/TKO (Yes/No), Young KO/TKO (Yes/No), Submission (Yes/No), and Round Thresholds (Over/Under). Each market has clear, non-overlapping resolution criteria tied to official UFC results.
  • Kalshi: Single market states: 'If Gauge Young wins...then resolves to Yes. If Thiago Moises wins...then resolves to Yes.' This creates a logical impossibility—the market resolves YES for both mutually exclusive outcomes (either fighter winning), leaving no path to NO resolution. Quote: 'If Gauge Young wins the Moises vs Young professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Apr 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Thiago Moises wins the Moises vs Young professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Apr 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.