TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Umar Nurmagomedov (Bantamweight, Main Card)
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Umar Nurmagomedov?

Volume:
$4,744,534

Yadong Song

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 29, 2026

Closed: Aug 29, 8:54 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Yadong Song

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,998,888
N/A
N/A
$1,627,174
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Song Yadong vs. Umar Nurmagomedov

View
100%
84%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,018,086
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
4%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$14,480
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
100%
83%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$10,543
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Yadong to win by KO/TKO?

View
100%
90%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$3,250
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Umar Nurmagomedov

View
0%
86%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,609,349
N/A
N/A
$1,435,169
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$47,460
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 4.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$30,768
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
20%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,398
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Nurmagomedov to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
9%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,071
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 3.5 Rounds

View
0%
74%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$188
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
0%
93%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
0%
92%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 13

Intro

This market tracks whether the UFC Fight Night bout between Song Yadong and Umar Nurmagomedov will last over or under 3.5 rounds. The aggregated consensus across Polymarket and Kalshi shows a current probability of 100.0% for the O/U 3.5 Rounds outcome. Resolution is determined by official information from the UFC. Watch for the scheduled fight date on August 29, 2026, as it will confirm the duration against the round threshold.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All markets across Polymarket and Kalshi resolve using the same official UFC results and share identical outcome conditions, including 50-50 rules for draws, cancellations, or post-September 12 postponements.Primary resolution logic: Official information from the UFC

Core resolution logic:

  • Winner markets resolve to the declared winner; 50-50 for draws, no contests, or cancellations
  • Duration markets resolve based on whether the fight exceeds specified round thresholds
  • Method-of-victory markets resolve only if the specified method matches the official result
  • Any bout not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 12, 2026 results in 50-50 resolution where applicable

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Exact Threshold: If a fight ends exactly at a round threshold (e.g., 2:30 of Round 1 for O/U 0.5), it resolves 50-50
  • Disqualification: Fights ending in disqualification resolve 'No' for method markets and trigger 50-50 where applicable
Timing: Resolution occurs after official UFC announcement of fight results, no later than September 12, 2026 for canceled or postponed boutsOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Song Yadong" if Song Yadong is officially declared the winner of the fight against Umar Nurmagomedov at UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song, scheduled for August 29, 2026. It will resolve to "Umar Nurmagomedov" if Umar Nurmagomedov is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 12, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

If Umar Nurmagomedov wins the Nurmagomedov vs Song professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Aug 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Yadong Song wins the Nurmagomedov vs Song professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Aug 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.