TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$130,522,377

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,438,389,636

404,028

Markets across

30,214

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
UFC Fight Night: Ryan Spann vs. Mario Pinto (Heavyweight, Prelims)
kalshi
polymarket

UFC Fight Night: Ryan Spann vs. Mario Pinto (Heavyweight, Prelims)

Volume:
$2,023,446

Mario Pinto

 - Kalshi

Mario Pinto - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 5, 2026

Closed: Sep 5, 2:39 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Mario Pinto

View
100%
23%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$578,075
N/A
N/A
$334,217
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Pinto to win by KO/TKO?

View
100%
51%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.9¢
N/A
$4,616
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$3,820
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
27%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,248
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Ryan Spann

View
0%
24%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,113,968
N/A
N/A
$712,611
Settled
No
polymarket

Ryan Spann vs. Mario Pinto

View
0%
24%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$310,450
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
0%
45%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,001
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,617
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Spann to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$519
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$69
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
0%
33%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$63
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks whether the UFC Fight Night bout between Ryan Spann and Mario Pinto, scheduled for September 5, 2026, will be won by KO or TKO. Currently, the aggregated probability across Kalshi and Polymarket indicates a 99.5% chance of this outcome. Resolution will be based on official UFC announcements and records. Keep an eye on the official weigh-in results on September 4, 2026, as any last-minute changes could influence the fight’s dynamic and potential for a knockout or technical knockout victory.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All markets across Polymarket and Kalshi resolve based on the same official UFC outcomes, with consistent handling of draws, No Contests, cancellations, and postponementsPrimary resolution logic: Official UFC announcements and records

Core resolution logic:

  • Winner markets resolve to the officially declared winner
  • Method of victory markets resolve based on UFC-recorded finish type (KO/TKO, submission, etc.)
  • Distance markets resolve based on whether the full scheduled rounds were completed
  • Round duration markets resolve based on whether fight duration exceeded specified thresholds
  • Draws, No Contests, cancellations, or postponements beyond September 19, 2026 resolve to 50-50 where applicable

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Exact Threshold: If a round duration market ends exactly at the threshold, it resolves to 50-50
  • Disqualification: Fights ending in disqualification resolve to No for method of victory markets and 50-50 for winner markets
Timing: Resolution occurs after the official UFC announcement of the fight result, no later than September 19, 2026Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Ryan Spann" if Ryan Spann is officially declared the winner of the fight against Mario Pinto at UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse, scheduled for September 5, 2026. It will resolve to "Mario Pinto" if Mario Pinto is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 19, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

Markets resolve to Yes if the specified fighter wins the originally scheduled professional MMA fight. If postponed or delayed, markets remain open until the rescheduled fight concludes within two weeks. Ties or no contests result in a 50/50 resolution for both markets, while cancellations or reschedules exceeding two weeks trigger a fair price adjustment. These markets are independently operated and not endorsed by Zuffa LLC, d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship, UFC.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Spann vs Pinto fight market dashboard provides a live view of how traders price the outcomes across platforms. It aggregates odds and volume from multiple venues, showing the current consensus and divergence in expectations for this market. The dashboard updates in real time to reflect shifts in betting sentiment, allowing users to see where Polymarket and Kalshi agree or differ. With a total volume of $2,023,446, it offers transparency into how the market evaluates the fight’s possible results.

Prediction market odds on this market often diverge from traditional sportsbook lines due to different participant dynamics and information efficiency. While sportsbooks may incorporate proprietary adjustments, prediction markets let traders price outcomes freely, sometimes producing sharper or more volatile odds. The spread between the two can reflect public sentiment, recent news, or fighter performance shifts, making each venue unique.