TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
Roman Dolidze faces Christian Leroy Duncan in a middleweight bout scheduled for UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy on March 21, 2026. Markets cover fight outcome (winner), method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, decision), fight duration (round thresholds), and whether the bout goes the distance. All resolution depends on official UFC declaration of the result.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally different resolution scopes. Kalshi resolves on a simple binary (either fighter wins), while Polymarket offers multiple distinct markets covering winner, fight duration, finish method, and distance. The platforms do not directly contradict each other, but they measure different outcomes.Hero Tip:
Kalshi bettors are betting on a simple winner outcome only. Polymarket bettors can hedge or speculate on fight duration, finish type, and distance separately. If you want full fight outcome coverage (winner + method + duration), use Polymarket. If you want a simple winner bet, use Kalshi. Note that Polymarket's winner market and Kalshi's winner market should resolve identically for the same fight result, but Polymarket offers granular subsidiary markets that Kalshi does not.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Distinct stance: Kalshi offers a single binary market that resolves YES if either Roman Dolidze wins OR Christian Leroy Duncan wins the fight. This is a tautological market structure (one of the two must win, barring cancellation) with no subsidiary markets for duration, method, or distance. Key quote: 'If Roman Dolidze wins the Dolidze vs Duncan professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Mar 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Christian Duncan wins the Dolidze vs Duncan professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Mar 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'Polymarket:
Distinct stance: Polymarket offers eight separate markets covering winner (Dolidze vs Duncan), fight duration (O/U 0.5, 1.5, 2.5 rounds), distance (Fight to Go the Distance), and finish method (KO/TKO, submission, and fighter-specific KO/TKO outcomes). Each market has independent resolution criteria tied to official UFC sources. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to "Roman Dolidze" if Roman Dolidze is officially declared the winner of the fight against Christian Leroy Duncan at UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy, scheduled for March 21, 2026. It will resolve to "Christian Leroy Duncan" if Christian Leroy Duncan is officially declared the winner.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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