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UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Card)
polymarket
kalshi

UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Card)

Volume:
$4,551,718

Rafael Fiziev

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 27, 2026

Closed: Jun 27, 3:09 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Rafael Fiziev

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,679,651
N/A
N/A
$1,277,077
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$29,404
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,279,429
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fiziev to win by KO/TKO?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$835
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$702
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$590
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Manuel Torres

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,536,590
N/A
N/A
$1,393,710
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$22,205
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,195
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Torres to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$797
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$251
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 3.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$34
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 4.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$34
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 13

Intro

This market tracks the outcome and details of the UFC Fight Night lightweight main card bout between Rafael Fiziev and Manuel Torres scheduled for June 27, 2026. Aggregated data from Polymarket and Kalshi shows a 100.0% consensus probability, with resolution sourced from UFC.com official event records. Markets span fight winner, method of victory including knockout/technical knockout and submission, round thresholds, and performance bonuses. Watch for the fight's conclusion on June 27, 2026, which will determine all related market resolutions.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi market conflates two mutually exclusive outcomes (either fighter winning) into a single Yes condition, while Polymarket maintains granular, mutually exclusive resolution paths for each outcome type.Hero tip: Interpret Kalshi as a binary on whether the fight is contested and decided (not canceled/postponed), not as a competitive outcome selector. Use Polymarket markets for directional fighter/method bets. Avoid arbitrage strategies that assume Kalshi and Polymarket winner markets are complementary.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Provides 10 distinct markets with mutually exclusive outcomes: winner (Fiziev vs Torres), method (KO/TKO, submission, distance), duration (O/U 0.5/1.5/2.5/3.5/4.5 rounds). Each resolves independently to Yes/No/50-50 based on official UFC result. Cancellation/postponement beyond July 11, 2026 triggers 50-50 across all markets.
  • Kalshi: Single binary market: resolves Yes if either Manuel Torres OR Rafael Fiziev wins. No distinction between fighters or methods. Logically, this market will resolve Yes in nearly all scenarios where the fight occurs, making it functionally a binary on fight occurrence rather than outcome.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Rafael Fiziev" if Rafael Fiziev is officially declared the winner of the fight against Manuel Torres at UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres, scheduled for June 27, 2026. It will resolve to "Manuel Torres" if Manuel Torres is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond July 11, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

This market covers the professional MMA fight between Rafael Fiziev and Manuel Torres originally scheduled for June 27, 2026. Resolution depends on the fight's official outcome: if Fiziev wins, that market resolves to Yes; if Torres wins, that market resolves to Yes. If the fight is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled fight concludes within two weeks. In the event of a tie or no contest, both fighter markets resolve to 50/50. Should the fight be cancelled or rescheduled more than two weeks away, the market resolves to a fair price in accordance with established rules.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets and sportsbooks price the same event differently because they operate under distinct incentive structures. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their book and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets rely on traders putting real capital at risk to discover prices. Sportsbooks may adjust faster to sharp action or limit exposure to certain outcomes, whereas prediction markets aggregate dispersed information from many participants. Neither is inherently more accurate, but comparing the two can reveal where public perception diverges from professional sports betting consensus, offering context for this market's current pricing.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Platform design, user demographics, and liquidity pools shape how each venue prices the same fight. Polymarket and Kalshi attract different trader bases—some prefer one platform's interface, fee structure, or regulatory framework. Liquidity imbalances mean a large order on one platform can move the price more sharply than on the other. Additionally, each platform's rules and settlement processes may be perceived differently by traders, leading some to demand a risk premium. These gaps typically narrow as arbitrageurs exploit them, but they can persist if transaction costs or platform friction outweigh the profit opportunity.

Fighter news—injury reports, training camp updates, or withdrawal announcements—can shift odds sharply. Weigh-in results and official fighter statements often trigger repricing as traders assess physical condition and mental readiness. Betting action from professional syndicates or sharp money may signal confidence in one side and attract retail traders to follow. Media coverage, analyst commentary, and social sentiment can also influence perception. Finally, any rule changes, venue adjustments, or opponent substitutions announced by the UFC would prompt immediate recalibration across this market and sportsbooks alike.