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UFC Fight Night: Punahele Soriano vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, Main Card)
polymarket
kalshi

UFC Fight Night: Punahele Soriano vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, Main Card)

Volume:
$1,806,432

Daniil Donchenko

 - Kalshi

Daniil Donchenko - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 5, 2026

Closed: Sep 5, 4:44 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Daniil Donchenko

View
100%
31%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$701,645
N/A
N/A
$469,115
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$52,289
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
100%
58%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,828
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,206
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Punahele Soriano

View
0%
32%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$877,517
N/A
N/A
$732,787
Settled
No
polymarket

Punahele Soriano vs. Daniil Donchenko

View
0%
31%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$166,227
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Donchenko to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
44%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,870
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
9%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,855
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Soriano to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
14%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$788
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$206
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks whether the UFC Fight Night bout between Punahele Soriano and Daniil Donchenko will go Over/Under 2.5 Rounds. Currently, the consensus probability across Polymarket and Kalshi indicates a 100.0% chance of the fight going Over 2.5 Rounds, as determined by official information from the UFC. These markets cover various aspects of the fight scheduled for September 5, 2026, including the method of victory and specific win conditions. Keep an eye on the official UFC announcement following the fight on September 5, 2026, to see if the bout concludes before or after the 2.5 round mark.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All markets across Polymarket and Kalshi resolve based on the same official UFC result for the fight, with consistent handling of draws, No Contest, cancellations, and method-of-victory conditions.Primary resolution logic: Official information from the UFC

Core resolution logic:

  • The fight result (winner, draw, No Contest, etc.) is determined by official UFC announcement.
  • Markets for method of victory (KO/TKO, submission) resolve based on how the official winner achieved victory.
  • Round-based markets resolve according to whether the fight surpassed specific round thresholds, with exact thresholds defined per market.
  • Any cancellation, postponement beyond September 19, 2026, or No Contest results in 50-50 resolution for all markets.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Exact Threshold: If a round-based market ends exactly at the threshold (e.g., 2:30 mark of Round 1 for O/U 0.5 Rounds), it resolves 50-50.
  • Disqualification: If either fighter is disqualified, markets resolve as 'No' for method-of-victory markets and according to the fight not going the distance for round-based markets.
Timing: Resolution occurs after the official UFC announcement of the fight result, which must be made by September 19, 2026. If the fight is postponed beyond this date, all markets resolve 50-50.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Punahele Soriano" if Punahele Soriano is officially declared the winner of the fight against Daniil Donchenko at UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse, scheduled for September 5, 2026. It will resolve to "Daniil Donchenko" if Daniil Donchenko is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 19, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

Markets resolve to Yes if the specified fighter wins the originally scheduled professional MMA fight. If postponed or delayed, markets remain open until the rescheduled fight concludes within two weeks. Ties or no contests result in a 50/50 resolution for both markets, while cancellations or reschedules exceeding two weeks trigger a fair price adjustment. These markets are independently operated and not endorsed by Zuffa LLC, d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship, UFC.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Soriano vs Donchenko fight market aggregates betting data from multiple venues, showing real-time probabilities and volume for each possible fight outcome. It tracks how trader sentiment shifts across platforms, highlighting consensus or divergence in expectations for this main-card UFC welterweight bout. The view reflects cumulative volume of $1,806,432 and recent momentum via 24-hour volume of $1,736,701, letting users monitor where the market stands as fight day approaches.

Key signals that could shift this market include last-minute fighter changes — such as injuries, weight-miss announcements, or training updates — as well as evolving media narratives around each competitor’s readiness. Major betting inflows on either side, especially from high-volume traders, can also cause rapid probability swings. Any pre-fight publicity or social media buzz highlighting performance metrics will likely influence trader sentiment before the bout.