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UFC Fight Night: Oban Elliott vs. Michael Oliveira (Welterweight, Prelims)
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win Oban Elliott vs. Michael Oliveira?

Volume:
$2,256,902

Michael Oliveira

 - Kalshi

Michael Oliveira - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 1, 2026

Closed: Aug 1, 12:32 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Michael Oliveira

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$894,436
N/A
N/A
$753,932
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Oliveira to win by KO/TKO?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,118
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,142
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Oban Elliott

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$743,243
N/A
N/A
$707,012
Settled
No
polymarket

Oban Elliott vs. Michael Oliveira

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$482,297
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$130,436
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,422
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$402
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$349
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Elliott to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$46
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks whether the UFC Fight Night bout between Oban Elliott and Michael Oliveira will last beyond 0.5 rounds. The current aggregated consensus probability for the leading outcome, O/U 0.5 Rounds, is 20.0%, combining data from Polymarket and Kalshi, with resolution based on official information from the UFC. The outcome will be determined at the event scheduled for August 1, 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All markets across Polymarket and Kalshi resolve based on the same UFC official results and timing thresholds, with consistent handling of draws, no contests, and cancellations.Primary resolution logic: Official information from the UFC

Core resolution logic:

  • Winner markets resolve to the declared winner; draws and no contests resolve as 50-50
  • Method markets (KO/TKO, Submission) resolve only if the fight ends by that specific method
  • Round duration markets use precise timing thresholds at the 2:30 mark of each round
  • Any cancellation or postponement beyond August 15, 2026 results in 50-50 resolution

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Exact Threshold Timing: If a fight ends exactly at the 2:30 mark of a round for O/U markets, it resolves as 50-50
  • Disqualification: All method markets resolve as No/50-50 if the fight ends in disqualification
Timing: Resolution occurs immediately after the UFC officially declares the result, no later than August 15, 2026Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Oban Elliott" if Oban Elliott is officially declared the winner of the fight against Michael Oliveira at UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez, scheduled for August 1, 2026. It will resolve to "Michael Oliveira" if Michael Oliveira is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 15, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

If Oban Elliott wins the Elliott vs Oliveira professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Michael Oliveira wins the Elliott vs Oliveira professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Oban Elliott vs. Michael Oliveira fight market aggregates real-time data from multiple venues, showing how traders price the likelihood of different outcomes. It displays current probabilities, volume of $2,256,902, and 24-hour volume of $2,181,955 across Polymarket and Kalshi. This offers a consensus view of market sentiment, letting users see how expectations shift as the event approaches.

On Polymarket and Kalshi, prices can vary due to differences in user participation, liquidity depth, and market design. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For instance, one venue may attract more aggressive traders early, skewing its implied probability. Additionally, each platform sets its own fee structure and trading rules, which influences how quickly prices adjust to new information and how much they eventually diverge from one another.

In the weeks ahead, this market could shift based on fight-related news such as injury updates, training camp performance leaks, changes in betting volumes on either fighter, and any last-minute opponent swaps. Media appearances, social media buzz, and oddsmaker adjustments also often influence trader sentiment, causing probabilities to swing noticeably before the event.