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UFC Fight Night: Muhammad Naimov vs. Losene Keita (Featherweight, Main Card)
polymarket
kalshi

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad Naimov vs. Losene Keita (Featherweight, Main Card)

Volume:
$973,658

Losene Keita

 - Kalshi

Losene Keita - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 5, 2026

Closed: Sep 5, 3:30 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Losene Keita

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$415,793
N/A
N/A
$271,580
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Keita to win by KO/TKO?

View
100%
50%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.9¢
N/A
$4,713
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$2,193
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
100%
46%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
15¢
N/A
$415
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Muhammadjon Naimov

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$449,083
N/A
N/A
$392,839
Settled
No
polymarket

Muhammad Naimov vs. Losene Keita

View
0%
22%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$85,718
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
0%
39%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,263
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
0%
44%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,931
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,177
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$350
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Naimov to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$23
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks whether the UFC Fight Night bout between Muhammad Naimov and Losene Keita will go over or under 0.5 rounds. Currently, the aggregated probability across Polymarket and Kalshi indicates a 99.5% chance of the fight going over 0.5 rounds. Resolution will be based on official information from the UFC. Keep an eye on the fight itself, scheduled for September 5, 2026, as the outcome will determine whether the fight concludes within the first half-round or extends beyond it.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All markets across Polymarket and Kalshi resolve using the same official UFC results and share identical edge-case handling for draws, No Contests, cancellations, and threshold-bound outcomes.Primary resolution logic: Official information from the UFC

Core resolution logic:

  • Winner markets resolve to the officially declared winner (Naimov or Keita); 50-50 for draws, No Contests, or cancellations
  • Method markets (KO/TKO, Submission) resolve Yes only if the fight ends by that specific method; No for all other endings
  • Round threshold markets (O/U X.5 Rounds) resolve Over if the fight lasts beyond the listed round/time threshold, Under if it ends before, and 50-50 for exact thresholds or cancellations
  • All markets resolve 50-50 if the bout is not scored, postponed beyond September 19, 2026, or canceled

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Draw or Technical Draw: Resolves to 50-50 for winner markets and No for method markets, unless it is a judges' scorecard decision after full rounds (resolves Yes for 'Fight to Go the Distance')
  • No Contest / Canceled / Postponed: All markets resolve 50-50 regardless of original fight status or round progression
  • Exact Threshold in Round Markets: Resolves 50-50 if the fight ends exactly at the listed round/time threshold (e.g., ends at 2:30 of Round 1 for O/U 0.5 Rounds)
Timing: Resolution occurs after the official UFC declaration of the fight result, no later than September 19, 2026Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Muhammad Naimov" if Muhammad Naimov is officially declared the winner of the fight against Losene Keita at UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse, scheduled for September 5, 2026. It will resolve to "Losene Keita" if Losene Keita is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 19, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

Markets resolve to Yes if the specified fighter wins the originally scheduled professional MMA fight. If postponed or delayed, markets remain open until the rescheduled fight concludes within two weeks. Ties or no contests result in a 50/50 resolution for both markets, while cancellations or reschedules exceeding two weeks trigger a fair price adjustment. These markets are independently operated and not endorsed by Zuffa LLC, d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship, UFC.